It’s been over a month since the Israel-Hamas cease-fire deal in Gaza went into effect, and world leaders are now turning to the second, far more complex phase of the U.S.-brokered peace framework. These conversations kicked off in earnest on Tuesday, when G-7 foreign ministers gathered in Ontario, Canada, to hash out how to carry out the next stage. But as Phase 2 provides no timelines or mechanisms for implementation, experts worry that peace efforts could break down.
Under the second phase of the Gaza cease-fire deal, Israel must withdraw farther from the so-called yellow line until it fully leaves the territory, Hamas must completely disarm to allow for a transitional authority to govern Gaza, and a multinational security force must deploy to the area to take over from the Israeli military. However, several obstacles stand in the way, including Hamas refusing to relinquish its weapons; Israel rejecting any involvement of the Palestinian Authority, which governs parts of the occupied West Bank; and uncertainty over the makeup of the multinational force.
“We’re still working out ideas,” Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said this month. “Everybody wants this conflict over. All of us want the same endgame here. Question is: How do we make it work?”
According to private documents obtained by Politico, several Trump administration officials have expressed doubts that the peace deal’s second phase can be implemented. In a presentation given to U.S. Central Command and members of the newly created Civil-Military Coordination Center last month, experts shared concerns that the multinational security initiative planned for Gaza may not be able to be deployed, citing lack of commitments from foreign countries and lingering questions over who will ultimately oversee Gaza’s governance.
The slideshow also pointed to evidence of Hamas “reasserting authority and filling the security vacuum through coercive enforcement [and] policing.” U.S. officials met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday to discuss these concerns as well as what to do about a group of around 200 Hamas fighters who remain in tunnelsbeneath the southern Gaza city of Rafah, which is under Israeli control. Hamas has demanded that Israel grant the trapped fighters safe passage to the part of Gaza not under Israel’s control, but so far, Israel has refused. The resulting stalemate has become a flash point that is threatening to undermine the cease-fire.
According to an assessment in the private presentation, as of Oct. 20, the Israeli military controls 53 percent of Gaza. However, 95 percent of the enclave’s population lives in the remaining 47 percent, and Hamas has already redeployed 7,000 “security personnel” to these areas. Without a push to have Israel fully withdraw from Gaza, European officials told Reuters that the territory could end up partitioned, with Israel controlling a limited area and Hamas ruling the rest.
“We cannot have a fragmentation of Gaza,” Safadi added, as such a de facto state could lead to years of separation and limit reconstruction to just the Israeli-controlled areas.
Still, the Trump administration remains publicly optimistic about the deal’s prospects—and privately committed to significant U.S. involvement in the region, including with security provisions and economic reconstruction.
“We’ve got to deal with the challenges and make sure they [Hamas] don’t unravel this,” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last month. “So, I’m not worried about it, but we’re aware that these are challenges that we have to confront,” adding that “if this was easy, it would have been done 30 years ago.”
ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR – CEASEFIRE
Israel has destroyed more than 1,500 buildings in areas of Gaza under its control since the ceasefire began on October 10, satellite images reviewed by BBC Verify show. The actual number of destroyed buildings is likely much higher, as satellite imagery is not available in some areas. BBC Newsreports.
Israel reopened the Zikim Crossing north of Gaza City to allow humanitarian aid trucks into Gaza today, according to COGAT, the Israeli army unit responsible for facilitating aid to Gaza. The U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said the crossing was shut on September 12. Israel’s military did not provide reasons for the closure. Jana Choukeir reports for Reuters.
UNICEF said yesterday that Israel is blocking the entry of 1.6 million vaccines and solar-powered fridges to store the vaccine vials into Gaza, adding that the syringes have awaited customs clearance since August. “Both the syringes and the… refrigerators are considered dual-use by Israel, and these items we’re finding very hard to get through clearances and inspections, yet they are urgent,” a UNICEF spokesperson said. Olivia Le Poidevin reports for Reuters.
Internal U.S. documents linked to President Trump’s Gaza peace plan,obtained by POLITICO, depict major implementation challenges, including uncertainty about whether an International Stabilization Force can be deployed. The compendium of documents was presented last month during a two-day symposium for U.S. Central Command and Civil-Military Coordination Center members. Dasha Burns, Felicia Schwartz, Nahal Toosi, and Paul McLeary report.
The Israeli parliament on Monday advanced a bill that would mandate the death penalty for Palestinians convicted of killing Israeli citizens. In the first vote, the bill passed with 39 in favour and 16 against, out of 120 lawmakers. Several key political parties boycotted the initial vote. Alexander Cornwell and Steven Sheer report for Reuters.
Settlers’ Terrorism Against West Bank Civilian Residents
Dozens of masked Israeli settlers yesterday attacked two Palestinian villages in the occupied West Bank, setting fire to vehicles and other property, according to Israeli and Palestinian officials. Israeli police said that four Israelis were arrested during the assault, which they described as “acts of extremist violence.” The Israeli military said that four Palestinians were wounded. Josef Federman, Shlomo Mor, and Melanie Lidman report for AP News; Aaron Boxerman reports for the New York Times.
ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR
U.S. intelligence, gathered last year, revealed Israeli officials discussing how Israeli soldiers had sent Palestinians into tunnels in Gaza, which they believed might be lined with explosives, according to two former U.S. officials. The information relating to the alleged use of Palestinians as human shields was shared with the Biden administration during its final weeks, the sources said. Erin Banco reports for Reuters.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog yesterday described settler attacks on Tuesday in the occupied West Bank as “shocking and serious.” Herzog said the violence “crosses a red line,” adding that “all state authorities must act to decisively eradicate the phenomenon.” The Israeli army’s chief of staff, Eya Zamir, echoed Herzog, saying the military “will not tolerate the phenomena of a minority of criminals who tarnish a law-abiding public.” Palestinians and human rights workers have frequently accused the Israeli army and police of failing to halt attacks by settlers. The U.N. last week reported more Israeli settler attacks in the West Bank in October than in any other month since 2006. Melanie Lidman reports for AP News.
Israel, US Agree to Deport 200 Hamas Terrorists from Gaza
Israel and the United States reached a deal to deport around 200 Hamas terrorists hiding in tunnels within Rafah’s IDF-controlled Yellow Line, as part of an effort to eliminate Hamas’s presence. The plan followed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s talks with US envoy Jared Kushner, though no country has yet agreed to receive the deportees.
Macron Reverses Ban on Eight Israeli Defense Firms in Paris
French President Emmanuel Macron reinstated eight Israeli firms barred from the Milipol defense show after intervention by lawmaker Meyer Habib, who publicly appealed to Macron before receiving his brief reply: “Sorted, regards.” The reversal, coordinated with Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar, comes during efforts to repair strained French-Israeli ties following recent diplomatic tensions.
UAE Rejects Gaza Force Over Qatari, Turkish Involvement
The UAE has declined to join a planned Gaza stabilization force, citing concerns over Qatari and Turkish influence that could empower Muslim Brotherhood–linked groups. Presidential adviser Anwar Gargash said Abu Dhabi sees no clear framework for the mission but will focus on humanitarian aid and reconstruction instead.