** Bottom Line Up Front
* The Trump team’s appointments to key Gaza peace process institutions have not yet produced significant momentum toward permanent stability and reconstruction in the enclave.
* The ceasefire established in October has frayed under near daily Israeli attacks on Hamas targets, which Israel claims are a response to Hamas militia movements.
* U.S. officials are planning to convene the first formal Board of Peace meeting in Washington next week to elicit pledges for Gaza reconstruction and the International Stabilization Force (ISF).
* The key issues of Hamas disarmament and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza remain frozen by both sides’ red lines.
With a slew of appointments last month, Trump and his team sought to instill movement toward implementing Phase II of his 20 Point Plan for Gaza (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
Force that is designed to secure Gaza until Palestinian forces can assume that role.
Yet, three weeks after Trump inaugurated the Board of Peace (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
deployed under the October agreement. In another Israeli attack, helicopter gunships reportedly hit a tent sheltering displaced people in the southern city of Khan Younis. Israeli attacks have killed more than 500 Palestinians and wounded more than 1,500 others since the ceasefire took effect, according to Al Jazeera.
One sign of the advancement of Phase II of the Gaza plan was Israel’s reopening last week of the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt. Palestinian officials heralded the restoration of the key crossing as a “window of hope” after two years of war, which would provide infirmed and injured Gaza residents an outlet to seek medical treatment abroad. However, the Rafah reopening was tempered by significant limitations. Restrictions negotiated by Israeli, Egyptian, Palestinian and international officials meant that only 50 people would be allowed to return to Gaza each day and 50 medical patients — along with two companions for each — would be allowed to leave. Far fewer people than expected have crossed in both directions, and Palestinian travelers seeking to use the route reported hours-long delays and frequent instances of harsh interrogations by Israeli border authorities.
The Trump team is also struggling to overcome doubts (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
Netanyahu (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
Nor have the U.S.-named governance and security institutions established their authority in Gaza to date. Trump officials have appointed the members of the Palestinian technocratic governing committee, as well as members of a Gaza Executive Board that is to serve as the formal liaison between the Board of Peace and the governing committee. However, the committee has not entered Gaza and is working from Egypt, in part because the extent to which Hamas will implement its pledge to cede political power to the committee remains uncertain. And, the ISF has struggled to materialize, despite Trump’s appointment last month of U.S. Army Major General Jasper Jeffers as its commander. In December, the Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. officials had formally approached more than 70 countries to contribute troops, funding or logistical support. Nineteen leaders reportedly expressed some willingness to assist, and Israeli media reported Trump was set to announce force pledges from Italy, Kosovo,
Albania, and Kazakhstan last week, but no announcement was made. Other sources indicated an actual ISF deployment into Gaza appears far off because leaders are demanding, as a condition of finalizing force pledges, that the unit have a clear mandate and security framework for its operations. Moreover, Israel is attempting to veto the participation of some potential force donors, particularly Türkiye (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
Underpinning the reluctance of global leaders to commit ISF forces is the core sticking point that has plagued the Trump peace plan from inception: the uncertainty over whether Hamas will agree to demobilize and disarm (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
Last week, U.S. Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz sought to move the disarmament process forward. He told the UN Security Council the U.S. wants to launch an “agreed process of decommissioning of [Hamas] weapons…All military, terror, and offensive infrastructure, including tunnels and weapon-production facilities, will be destroyed and not rebuilt.” He added “independent international monitors” will supervise the demilitarization process, and that there will be an internationally funded program to “buy back” weapons from Hamas members. He noted that some former Hamas members will be invited to integrate into the new government security forces. However, Israel is pressing the Trump team to compel Hamas fighters to leave Gaza entirely, in order to secure a permanent peace. Netanyahu claims that Trump committed to a 60-day deadline for Hamas to disarm, after which Israel could resume the war if Hamas remained armed. U.S. officials deny that Trump made such a pledge and contend the
demilitarization process will take at least 100 days to achieve even an initial demilitarization.
Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders justify their skepticism that Hamas will disarm by citing statements of Hamas leaders. The latest among them was a speech on Sunday by Hamas’ political leader abroad, Khaled Meshaal, rejecting calls to disarm Palestinian factions in Gaza. He argued that stripping weapons from an occupied population would turn them into “an easy victim to be eliminated.” He described the discussion around Hamas handing over its weapons as a continuation of a century-long effort to neutralize Palestinian armed resistance. However, he tempered his comments by suggesting Hamas recognized a need to disarm at least to some extent. He stated, “[it is] necessary to provide an environment that allows reconstruction and relief and ensures that the war does not reignite between [Hamas and Israel]…This is a logical approach, and Hamas — through mediators Qatar, Türkiye and Egypt, and through indirect dialogues with the Americans via the mediators — has reached, or there has been, an
understanding of Hamas’s vision on that.”
If Hamas refuses to disarm, Israel will likely, in turn, remain in control of almost half of the Gaza Strip, arguing that Hamas’s retention of its arms indicates its intent to retain power in the territory. Israel is also likely to veto U.S. efforts to begin rebuilding Gaza unless the Hamas militia is eliminated. One Israeli expert, Orit Miller-Katav of Ariel University’s Institute for Middle Eastern and Asian Studies, told The Times of Israel: “As long as our enemies inside Gaza are still… planning to regain their power… [Israel is] doomed to carry on staying with ground forces surrounding Gaza.” Some regional leaders and experts say that, even if Hamas is demobilized, Israel will still insist on controlling a one-kilometer-wide buffer zone around the Gaza Strip, including along the Gaza-Egypt border, to ensure that no Gaza militants can approach Israeli communities without detection.
** The Soufan Center is an independent nonprofit organization based in New York City. Our mission is to provide cutting-edge research, analysis, and strategies to anticipate and counter the world’s most urgent security challenges.