Bottom Line Up Front
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* Differences between Israeli and U.S. leaders on key issues in the Middle East, particularly strategy toward Iran, might determine whether the region calms or flares into a broader conflagration.
* Trump insists that Israel support U.S. diplomacy with Tehran, backed by the threat of force, before the U.S. or Israel further considers military action against Iran.
* Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicates he might, even without U.S. approval, use force to try to topple Iran’s regime or, at the very least, cripple its missile and other deterrent capabilities.
* Netanyahu is skeptical that Trump’s Gaza peace plan will succeed and has threatened to restart the war against Hamas if the group refuses to comply with the plan’s disarmament requirements.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to pursue diplomacy instead of attacking Iran’s regime in the wake of the major uprising (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
intransigence at the negotiating table, Trump joined the Israeli effort. He ordered Operation Midnight Hammer — the U.S. bombing of the three key Iranian nuclear sites, including the underground uranium enrichment facility at Fordow that Israel was incapable of destroying. Iran retaliated with a missile strike (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
Trump and Netanyahu are at odds on Iran policy again in 2026. Both leaders assess that their military action in June has, for now, crippled Iran’s nuclear program. They also agree that Israel’s post-October 7 military operations have severely damaged Iran’s ability to project power through its Axis of Resistance (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
its missile and drone stockpile that was degraded last June, which can potentially cause massive damage inside Israel. According to a wide range of reports, President Trump’s comments last week that he might consider an agreement with Iran limited to nuclear issues, excluding any new limitations on Iran’s missile capabilities, caused Netanyahu to advance his visit to Washington to press Trump not to ease U.S. demands for a comprehensive agreement.
More broadly, Netanyahu and his team (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
However, facing internal and regional doubts about the potential for — and the consequences of — U.S. military action to topple Iran’s regime, Trump has insisted to Netanyahu that the diplomatic option (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
he differs with Trump on Iran strategy, Netanyahu told reporters that, during their meeting, Trump “…wanted to hear my opinion. I won’t hide from you that I expressed general skepticism about the quality of any agreement with Iran. But I said that if an agreement is indeed reached, it must include elements that are very important to us, to Israel — and, in my opinion, not only to Israel.”
Recognizing that an open break with Trump on a major national security issue would be detrimental to Israel’s interests as well as to Netanyahu’s political standing, the Prime Minister expressed grudging support for exploring the diplomatic option. He told journalists: “I think that the conditions he [Trump] is creating, combined with the fact that they [Iranian leaders] surely understand they made a mistake last time by not reaching an agreement, could lead to the conditions for achieving a good deal.” At the same time, Netanyahu sought to influence the next round (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
position yielded him some benefits. Axios reported Sunday that Trump signaled agreement with Netanyahu’s tougher line by agreeing that the U.S. will increase economic pressure on Iran, particularly on oil sales to China, which buys about 80 percent of Iran’s oil exports, according to U.S. officials briefed on the issue. Reports indicate that the indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran in Geneva yesterday ended with an agreement on a “set of guiding principles,” according to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Araghchi also stated that the two sides had agreed to exchange drafts for a potential deal.
Even though Netanyahu has bowed to Trump’s choices for now, regional leaders remain concerned about Israeli assertions that it reserves the right to take military action against Iran — with or without an explicit “green light” from Trump — if it perceives a gathering or imminent threat. Israeli officials have defined one of those potential triggers as further Iranian efforts to rebuild its missile arsenal and launch infrastructure that was degraded by Israel in the 2025 war. Regional leaders, as well as some U.S. officials, question whether Trump will be able to restrain Israel. Regional officials cite Israel’s attack (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
The Trump-Netanyahu divergence on Iran adds to their friction over the prospects for the Trump peace plan for Gaza to reassure Israel that it no longer faces a threat from Hamas. In his social media posts reading out their meeting, Trump affirmed he and Netanyahu had “also discussed the tremendous progress being made in Gaza, and the Region in general” — a reference to U.S. efforts to advance Phase II of the U.S. peace plan for Gaza. But as an indication of his skepticism about the purported progress, Netanyahu is not returning to the U.S. this week for the Wednesday meeting of Trump’s Board of Peace (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
Economic Forum in Davos. Israel had expressed to the Trump team some reservations about the U.S. inclusion on the Board of several regional states, particularly Türkiye, that Israel considers insufficiently committed to Hamas’s disarmament.
In his meeting with Trump, Netanyahu undoubtedly cited recent statements by Hamas leaders that the group would not disarm (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
central to completing the Gaza peace plan. She told journalists that demilitarization is “the linchpin of everything…If it doesn’t happen, we could end up with two Gazas, one run by Israel and the other by Hamas, or a return to a fully-fledged war.”