** Bottom Line Up Front
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* Although elements of the U.S. peace plan for Gaza are advancing, the prospects for permanent peace and stability are clouded by Hamas’ opposition to demobilizing its military wing.
* A succession of senior U.S. officials visited Israel last week to maintain Israel’s commitment to the ceasefire and the free flow of humanitarian aid, but Arab and other regional leaders increasingly fear the war will restart.
* Potential donors to a planned international peacekeeping unit are hesitant to contribute forces to an unstable Gaza.
* Global leaders seek to prevent a duality in Gaza in which an Israel-occupied zone thrives while a Hamas-dominated portion remains insecure and devoid of services or reconstruction activity.
A debate is raging among major stakeholders over whether the Trump 20 Point Plan for resolving the Gaza conflict is advancing, stalled, or, at worst, failing. Last week, a succession of top U.S. officials, including the key Gaza mediators Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, Vice President J.D. Vance, and, finally, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, all visited Israel to advance the peace plan and support Trump’s presentation of his initiative as an unqualified success. Amid growing regional concerns about the fate of the Trump initiative, Secretary Rubio summed up Washington’s position by stating there is “no plan B” and calling the U.S. peace initiative (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
way that’s not being looted or stolen or diverted in any way, and at the same time, creating the conditions for the (International) Stabilization Force to come in as soon as it possibly can be put together to provide the stabilization we need to move to the further phases of this plan.”
Global officials who express optimism note that Hamas released all 20 remaining living Israeli hostages on October 13 and has located and returned 15 out of the 28 bodies of deceased hostages, although Israel claims the delays in returning all the remains constitute a violation of the ceasefire agreement. Hamas says it is struggling to retrieve or locate some of the bodies without specialized equipment, because of the extent of destruction in Gaza, and Egyptian and Turkish search-and-rescue teams have deployed to Gaza to assist in the retrieval effort. Israel has released the nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners it was required to free under the agreement. Rubio and other U.S. officials have said Israel has “met its commitments under the first phase” of the Trump peace plan, although Palestinian and other Arab leaders cited October 19 Israeli air strikes, which killed dozens of Gaza civilians, as a ceasefire violation. Israel said the strikes were in response to a purported ceasefire
violation by Hamas that killed two Israel Defense Forces (IDF) personnel. On Saturday, Israel also conducted what it said was a “precise strike” on a member of the Palestine Islamic Jihad (PIJ) organization (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
Vice President Vance’s meetings in Israel attempted to instill confidence among regional leaders (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
Yet, Trump’s team’s visits did not overcome the skepticism expressed by regional leaders and outside experts that a permanent peace is at hand. Global leaders assess that the principal objective of the U.S. meetings in Israel last week centered on pressuring Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to downplay any Hamas ceasefire violations and remain committed to a permanent end to the conflict. Officials in the region perceive that Netanyahu is inclined to restart the war unless significant and verifiable progress is made on the core outstanding postwar issues: governance of Gaza, and Hamas demobilization and disarmament (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
Israeli leaders argue Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups are planning to play an indirect, but still pivotal, role in governing the enclave long-term — contrary to the Trump peace plan and despite Secretary Rubio’s reiteration last week that Hamas “cannot be involved in governing Gaza in the future.” As evidence for the Israeli skepticism, delegations from Hamas and its longtime rival Fatah — the dominant PLO faction of the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority (PA) (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
Alongside the Hamas-Fatah talks, Egypt’s intelligence chief Hassan Rashad discussed that same issue with senior officials from militant Hamas allies such as the Iran-backed PIJ, the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
Of paramount concern to Israeli, U.S., and regional officials, as well as the civilian population of Gaza, are the core provisions of the Trump plan for postwar security, predicated on a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and Hamas’ demobilization and disarmament (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
to date. Suggesting distrust of the Trump team’s ability — or staying power — to deliver the intended result, Zev Elkin, a member of Netanyahu’s “security cabinet” told Israel’s Kan Radio: “Ultimately either Hamas will understand that it has no choice but to disarm, because it faces destruction, or — which is a more reasonable scenario in my mind — it will refuse to do this and we shall have to finish the job.”
The issue of Hamas demobilization appears as intractable as it is pivotal to the actions and decisions of many Arab and international actors. If Hamas refuses to demobilize, Netanyahu has insisted he will not withdraw the IDF from the 58 percent of Gaza it still occupies. Governments that have tentatively pledged forces to the Trump plan’s International Stabilization Force (ISF) (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
if needed, but the Emir did not comment on a Qatari troop pledge during the meeting or since. Some regional leaders have criticized the Trump team for allowing Israel to exercise an informal veto over specific troop pledges, for example, from Türkiye, which Israel claims is too well-disposed toward Hamas.
Regional leaders are also beginning to assess the risks of a prolonged stalemate (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
areas that Hamas still controls…As long as the IDF can secure the area, the construction of the new Gaza must begin, to give Palestinians a place to live, work, and rebuild their lives.”