For the past few months, the buzz over a possible tripartite deal between U.S, Saudi Arabia and Israel to include Palestinian has kept The White House officials & spokespersons, Washington media and Middle East specialists on alert, speculating whether the US “broker deal” is a possible reality, or it’s just another excursive in futility when it comes to Israeli-Palestinian historical conflict aside from the prospect of normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia ?
Back In a July column, The New York Times’ Thomas Friedman reported President Joe Biden was mulling a deal that might include such normalization, Israeli concessions to Palestinians, and the US extending a NATO-style security guarantee and civilian-nuclear assistance to Saudi Arabia. After a conversation with President Joe Biden earlier in the month, Friedman reported that Biden was mulling one—with major concessions from the US possibly to include a NATO-style mutual-security assurance to Saudi Arabia, help setting up a Saudi civilian nuclear program, and more-advanced Saudi weapons purchases from Washington.
By mid-August, curiosity was piqued, but so was skepticism. At The Washington Post, columnist Jennifer Rubin writes that we shouldn’t expect any deal to materialize, among other reasons because of possible bipartisan opposition in Congress. In a Foreign Affairs essay, RAND political scientist Dalia Dassa Kaye argues it’s a bad idea. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing government are unlikely to deliver any benefits to Palestinians (part of the putative deal described by Friedman), Kaye writes, and Saudi Arabia probably wouldn’t turn away from China—a likely US goal. Moreover, Kaye argues, Israel and Saudi Arabia might normalize relations on their own over time without such significant US concessions.
Toward the end of August, the Global Briefing noted skepticism among some commentators that such an agreement could be reached—or, if it could, that it’d be a good idea. In an incisive Financial Times column, Gideon Rachman throws more cold water on the idea, writing: “Unfortunately, the reality of the deal could be much less attractive. The US could end up promising to defend an erratic autocracy in Saudi Arabia, while bolstering an Israeli government that is fast eroding its own democracy. Meanwhile, the hoped-for gains—pushback against China and progress for the Palestinians—may never materialise. In that case, the grand bargain will turn out to be a grand illusion.”
The BBC revealed last Thursday that among the Palestinian demands in the event of a tripartite agreement that includes the United States, Saudi Arabia and Israel, includes more political and security control over the territories in the occupied West Bank and a financial increase of hundreds of millions of dollars to support the Palestinian Authority, which is severely short of financial resources.
For a deal to succeed it would have to be seen to involve significant Israeli concessions to the Palestinians.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s de facto ruler, needs to assuage his own public – historically opposed to Israel and deeply sympathetic to the Palestinian cause.
According to B.B. C, A cash boost of hundreds of millions of dollars and more control of land in the occupied West Bank are among Palestinian demands in the event of a three-way deal involving the US, Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Among demands of Palestinian officials is the transfer of parts of the West Bank currently under full Israeli control.
Meanwhile, President Biden will also need to prove he has won significant gains for the Palestinians to get support from his Democratic Party. Many in the party reject the idea of any defence sweeteners for the Saudis due to the country’s human rights record and its role in the war in Yemen. They are also hostile to the idea of rewarding Israel’s current extreme nationalist governing coalition, which they see as exacerbating tensions in the West Bank, and which has sparked unprecedented instability within Israel itself.
The team of top Palestinian officials in Riyadh – including the two men seen as closest to President Mahmoud Abbas, the PA’s intelligence chief, Majed Faraj, and Hussein al-Sheikh, secretary-general of the Palestine Liberation Organisation – met Saudi national security adviser Musaed al-Aiban on Wednesday, according to a senior Palestinian official familiar with the discussions.
Their list of demands in return for engaging with the American-backed process was set out during a meeting with US Assistant Secretary of State Barbara Leaf last week in Amman. The Palestinian official told the BBC the demands include:
- Transferring parts of the West Bank currently under full Israeli control (known as Area C under the 1990s Oslo peace accords) to the governance of the Palestinian Authority
- A “complete cessation” of Israeli settlement growth in the West Bank
- Resuming Saudi financial support to the PA, which slowed from 2016 and stopped completely three years ago, to the tune of around $200m (£160m) per year
- Re-opening the US consulate in Jerusalem – the diplomatic mission to the Palestinians – that was shut down by President Donald Trump
- Resuming US-brokered negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians from where they stopped under then-Secretary of State John Kerry in 2014.
Such concessions are very significant – reportedly already seen by the Americans as overreaching by the Palestinians. But they are a far cry from the official, publicly stated Palestinian position on Saudi-Israel normalisation – which is to reject it outright if it does not leave them with an independent state.
In September 11, 2023, Said Arikat reported in AlQuds Palestinian Arabic daily, that Washington press sources were not enthusiastic about the Palestinian demands that were presented Suadi and U.S officials. The sources “said that the administration of US President Joe Biden believes that the Palestinian demands presented in the Riyadh talks are the demands of the maximum, which makes it very difficult to meet them by the administration at the moment, and that it is more useful for the Palestinians to come forward with “reasonable” demands that serve the de-escalation and reduction of violence, improve the daily lives of Palestinians, and freeze unilateral steps (for the Palestinian and Israeli sides) that complicate the prospects of reaching a two-state solution, which is the goal of the United States to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.”
Israel’s National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi revealed on Monday that talks with the Palestinian Authority were advancing, through Jordan, on the normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia.
“This is the first dialogue of its kind in about a decade where representatives of the countries talk very openly about what they want,” Hanegbi said during a conference at the Reichman University’s Anti-Terrorism Policy Institute.
Experts also believe that for any agreement to succeed, it must be seen as including major Israeli concessions to the Palestinians, as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman needs to appease his people – historically opposed to Israel and deeply sympathetic to the Palestinian cause.
At the same time, President Biden will also need to prove that he has made significant gains for the Palestinians to gain support from his Democratic Party, and many in the party reject the idea that there are any defensive incentives for the Saudis because of the country’s human rights record and its role in the war in Yemen, and they are hostile to the idea of rewarding the current ultra-nationalist ruling coalition in Israel, which they see as exacerbating tensions in the West Bank and that has sparked unprecedented instability within Israel itself.
The consensus in Washington policy makers and media pundits is that a deal is being negotiated that, if completed, the US would regain some of its influence over Saudi Arabia, stemming efforts by China to expand its sway in the Middle East. It would also be expected to make concessions to the Palestinian self-ruling authority in the West Bank. And for all concerned parties in Washington, the deal offers significant rewards to all four governments in the Middle East as they all seem anxious to see a sort of solution to Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Every one seems to realize that this the time to say out lowed “We can’t wait 30 more years for another breakthrough in the Middle East” and that it’s the US has the leverage to give both Israel and the Palestinians the incentive to dance to the music of normalization.