Bottom Line Up Front:
* Talks on a Gaza ceasefire continued on Saturday, but neither Hamas nor Israel is moving off their entrenched positions.
* Gaza civilians as well as Palestinian leaders in the West Bank increasingly blame Hamas for prolonging the war and adding to the destruction and civilian suffering in Gaza.
* Israel’s blockade of humanitarian aid for Gaza is straining Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s relations with U.S. President Donald Trump.
* Netanyahu rejects a return of the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority (PA) to governing Gaza, hindering the formulation of a postwar governance and security plan for the enclave.
Hamas and Israel continue to engage in halting, mediated talks to try to achieve an end to the Gaza conflict. On Saturday, a senior Hamas delegation including Muhammad Darwish, Khaled Meshaal, Khalil al-Hayya, Zaher Jabarin, and Nizar Awadallah held talks in Cairo on a proposed five-year truce and the release of all remaining Israeli hostages. Of the 250 Israelis taken back to Gaza during the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks, 59 are still in Gaza, of which 24 are believed still alive. Days earlier, David Barnea, the head of Israel’s main intelligence service, Mossad, visited Qatar for ceasefire talks. The sets of talks occur in the context of Israel’s military re-entry into Gaza on March 18, and its subsequent expansion of several security zones around the enclave.
As part of a stated effort to pressure Hamas, since March 2, Israel also has denied humanitarian aid from flowing into the territory. The tactic has attracted significant criticism not only from global officials but also from the Trump administration. On Friday, President Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a phone call: “We’ve got to be good to Gaza.” Taking questions on the way to the funeral of Pope Francis in Rome on Saturday, Trump said, “there’s a very big need for medicine, food and medicine. We’re taking care of it.” The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in Gaza said on Saturday: “The coming days are going to be critical…Today, people are not surviving in Gaza. Those that aren’t being killed by bombs and bullets are slowly dying.” One day earlier, the World Food Program said it had run out of food stocks in Gaza. The deteriorating situation is further compounded by attacks on aid workers (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
15/) , many of which have resulted in death, hindering the ability of humanitarians to deliver dwindling supplies or provide assistance.
The dire humanitarian conditions (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
killing protesters, accusing them of treason against Gaza’s defenders. Apparently judging Hamas’ political support among Palestinians to be declining, last Wednesday Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
Yet, the limited uprising in Gaza, Abbas’ attacks, and Israeli military pressure in Gaza have not, to date, moved Hamas off its core positions (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
government in Gaza, but it is not willing to disarm because doing so would render Gaza defenseless against Israeli occupation. Israeli hardliners have explained Hamas’ position as an effort by Hamas to retain control over the Gaza population and potentially prepare for another armed attack against Israeli on the scale of October 7. Hamas leaders have said that its Qassam militia would fold into a formal Palestinian security force structure only after an independent Palestinian state is established.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government is under domestic pressure on its side of the Israel-Gaza divide, but, like Hamas leaders, he refuses to yield on his core demands. As an elected leader, Netanyahu has been accused by some domestic and international critics of adopting policies toward the Gaza conflict that are intended to preserve his governing coalition rather than serve the national interest. Families of those still held in Gaza have led repeated demonstrations calling on the government to agree to end the war in order to achieve the return of the remaining hostages. Israeli opinion was inflamed by the April 21 remarks of far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, whose participation in Netanyahu’s coalition is crucial to the prime minister’s grip on power. Smotrich said publicly that saving the hostages in Gaza was not Israel’s “most important goal” in the war, stating openly what most Israelis say has been Netanyahu’s core principle all along. Last Saturday, in a major
statement to the Israeli public, Netanyahu explained his refusal to accede to the core Hamas demand for a permanent end to the war, saying: “If we accept their (Hamas leaders’) conditions, it means they can defeat Israel…If we give in to Hamas’ dictates now, all of our enormous achievements that we have achieved thanks to our soldiers, our fallen, and our injured – all of those achievements will be lost…If we commit to not fighting, we will not be able to return to fighting in Gaza…because those agreements include the complete withdrawal of the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) from Gaza.”
U.S. officials have consistently supported Israeli demands that Hamas must yield power, disarm, and release all hostages. However, Washington has questioned Netanyahu’s refusal to outline a postwar governance and security plan for Gaza. He has said Israel does not want to occupy Gaza militarily, but he has rejected U.S. and Arab proposals for non-Hamas Palestinians to assume control of the territory after an IDF withdrawal. Global officials have asserted to their Israeli counterparts that a new Gaza governing body would be able to secure Israeli interests by preventing Hamas from retaining and fielding arms or planning new attacks on Israel. But, Netanyahu and his allies apparently distrust any entity other than the IDF to prevent Hamas from rebuilding its military apparatus.
Experts assess the most logical postwar plan would assign a key postwar role for PA officials, most of whom are members of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) – the internationally recognized representative of the Palestinian people. However, taking a position at odds with U.S. officials, Netanyahu has ruled out any PA role in postwar Gaza. On February 17, he restated publicly: “Just as I have committed to, on the day after the war in Gaza, there will be neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority.” Netanyahu and his allies consider the PA corrupt and, by not directly condemning the October 7 attack, supportive of the use of violence against Israel. Netanyahu’s political allies have also long feared an empowered PA would pave the way for the establishment of a Palestinian state, which polls now show most Israelis oppose. On Saturday, PA President Abbas appointed Hussein al-Sheikh as vice president of the PLO, essentially designating him a successor to the 89-year-old Palestinian
leader. However, al-Sheikh is an Abbas loyalist, and his appointment will not likely satisfy either Israeli or U.S. officials who insist the PA be fundamentally reformed if it is to play a role in postwar Gaza. Without a clear postwar plan for Gaza, and as Israel and Hamas maintain entrenched and opposing positions, the prognosis for an end to the Gaza conflict is poor.