GAZA CONFLICT RESOLUTION AND POSTWAR PLANS IN FLUX

Bottom Line Up Front:
* Trump’s visit to several Arab Gulf states coincides with U.S. efforts to restore the flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza and develop a plan for its postwar administration.
* Israel is preparing to take over much of Gaza if no temporary ceasefire plan is adopted before Trump’s return to Washington at the end of the week.
* U.S. involvement in Gaza will deepen significantly if a new plan for distributing aid is implemented and stakeholders support the establishment of a U.S.-led interim administration for postwar Gaza.
* Proposals for an expanded U.S. role in Gaza reflect frustration over the repeated failure to reach another ceasefire and hostage release agreement or achieve consensus on a postwar governance plan.

U.S. President Donald Trump begins a visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on Wednesday as unresolved regional conflicts rage and some negotiations proceed. Although Trump is hoping to use the trip to attract significant investment from the wealthy Gulf states, his interlocutors are sure to press for U.S. commitments on two issues that remain top of mind for Gulf leaders – a resolution of the conflict in Gaza, and the U.S.-Iran talks to restore limitations on Iran’s nuclear program. Gaza remains a devastated and still active war zone more than 18 months after the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel. Gulf leaders are hoping that the U.S.-Iran talks produce a settlement that avoids the outbreak of a new regional conflict. Other issues certain to receive discussion include U.S. and regional approaches toward post-Assad Syria, the intentions and capabilities of the Houthi movement in Yemen (https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2025-may-12/) , the potential for
additional Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia, to normalize relations with Israel, and the durability and extent of the U.S. commitment to secure the Gulf.

The Gaza conflict has defied all efforts (https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2025-april-29/) to end the fighting, in large part because the leaders of Israel and Hamas perceive any compromise as opening themselves to existential threats. Hamas insists on an end to the war and refuses to disarm – positions that the group believes will ensure it remains a key, if not dominant, feature of the Palestinian national movement. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his supporters insist that only a dismantlement of Hamas’ military and political structure can ensure that another attack on the scale of October 7 cannot happen again. The entrenched differences have frustrated efforts by Trump officials and other mediators to establish another temporary ceasefire and hostage release, let alone move into the war-ending and rebuilding phases envisioned by a January truce. The latest ceasefire, from January 19 until March 1, saw the release of 25 living and eight deceased Israeli hostages,
reducing the number of remaining Israeli captives to 59, of which as many as 24 are still alive. As recently as last week, Trump’s envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, proposed that Hamas release all remaining live hostages in exchange for a 50-day ceasefire. However, Hamas rejected the proposal, insisting Israel agree to a permanent end to the war. Still, suggesting there are opportunities for sudden progress, Hamas announced on Sunday it would release Edan Alexander – a dual U.S.-Israeli citizen captured on October 7 – as a gesture of “goodwill” in advance of Trump’s visit to the region. Alexander was released yesterday, according to a statement by Hamas and an Israeli official speaking to NPR.

The Alexander release may pave the way for productive discussions between Trump and his hosts on the Gaza issue, which is sure to feature prominently in his meetings. The leaders of the three Gulf states on Trump’s itinerary face significant public pressure to insist that Trump exert influence on the Israeli government to ease the suffering of the Gaza population immediately. Saudi de facto leader Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) (https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2022-june-28/) has stated firmly he cannot accommodate a key Trump objective – achieving a normalization of relations between Israel and the Kingdom – as long as Israel wages combat in Gaza and refuses to support the eventual establishment of an independent Palestinian state.

Yet, as Trump’s visit begins, the situation in Gaza has deteriorated significantly since the latest ceasefire. On March 2, Israel halted humanitarian aid shipments into the territory, and a UN official said last week that aid organizations have run out of stockpiled food to distribute and that water and fuel are dangerously scarce. On March 18, Israel resumed combat operations (https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2024-october-22/) against Hamas, including ordering the displacement of many Gaza residents to avoid the fighting, in order to pressure the group to release all remaining hostages. Israel has steadily expanded its “security zones” in the territory to facilitate a broader offensive against remaining Hamas fighters. Last Monday, Netanyahu announced Israel would expand its attacks in Gaza and that more Gazans would be moved “for their own safety” unless Hamas capitulates to all Israeli demands. Israel has called up reservists and is expected to launch a major offensive after Trump
returns to Washington – assuming the trip does not produce a new ceasefire. An unnamed Israeli official told journalists: “The plan will include, among other things, the capture of the Strip and holding the territories, moving the Gazan population south for its defense, denying Hamas the ability to distribute humanitarian supplies, and powerful attacks against Hamas.” Israeli media reported that first stage would include the seizure of additional areas of Gaza and the expansion of the Israeli-designated “buffer zone” running along the territory’s borders.

Even as Netanyahu’s team envisions military “victory” (https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2025-february-10/) over Hamas, Trump’s team apparently has concluded that the conflict has become intractable, and more direct U.S. involvement in Gaza might be required to provide humanitarian aid, end the war, and rebuild the enclave. Last week, the Israeli cabinet adopted a plan, which reportedly was devised by U.S. officials, for Israel to end the aid blockade while controlling its distribution to prevent diversion of humanitarian goods by Hamas. Under the plan, Israel will set up four to six “distribution hubs,” with corridors for truck convoys entering Gaza from the Kerem Shalom crossing in the southeast corner of Gaza. Israeli-vetted heads of families in Gaza will pick up a 44-pound package of aid at one of the distribution hubs once a week, according to Israeli and U.S. officials. The plan gelled after Trump, reflecting pressure from within the U.S. government and from outside groups on the
Gaza aid issue, stated on Monday that people in Gaza “are starving and we are going to help them get some food.”

Not only was the plan developed by the U.S., but as an indicator of deepening U.S. involvement in the conflict, U.S. private security contractors will be used to protect the aid corridors, convoys, and hubs. Commenting on the plan and attempting to downplay any rift with Israel, U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee stated that “Any allegation that the Israelis don’t care about humanitarian aid is absolutely false.” Planners say aid distribution will reach at least one million Gazans, but the initial stage will offer supplies to fewer than 200,000. But the initiative was not, as Trump’s team hoped, put in place before his departure for the region. Major donors of humanitarian aid — including the UAE — have declined to participate in it because of the degree of control Israel will exert over the aid flow. No other country has announced support for the plan so far.

Trump and Netanyahu may also be drawing closer together in their approach to administering and rebuilding post-war Gaza. U.S officials have been frustrated over Netanyahu’s rejection of a return of the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority (PA) (https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2023-november-7/) to Gaza to govern and secure the enclave. Reports in the days before Trump’s visit to the region indicate U.S. officials are considering a plan for the U.S. to lead the administration of Gaza after Israel’s departure, similar to how Washington ran a formal occupation of Iraq for the two years after the 2003 invasion. According to Reuters, high-level U.S. and Israeli officials have held discussions “centered around a transitional government headed by a U.S. official, that would oversee Gaza until it had been demilitarized and stabilized, and a viable Palestinian administration had emerged.” The Palestinian administrators serving under U.S. supervision reportedly are to be technocrats aligned
with neither Hamas nor the PA. Officials briefed on the plan said that other countries would be invited to participate in the U.S.-led authority, but the UAE – one U.S. ally expected to play a significant role in post-war Gaza – refused to comment on whether it would support a U.S.-led administration that excluded the PA. UAE leaders have proposed that an international coalition oversee Gaza’s post-war governance, and Abu Dhabi has conditioned its involvement on PA participation in a new Gaza administration and a credible path toward Palestinian statehood. And, adding skepticism, Ismail Al-Thawabta, director of the Hamas-run Gaza government media office, rejected the idea of an administration led by the United States or any foreign government, saying the Palestinian people of Gaza should choose their own rulers. PA officials did not respond to journalists’ requests for comment.

** (https://thesoufancenter.org)