Antoine Shalhat, a Palestinian journalist and political analyst.
Some of the points of disagreement that erupted between Israel and the United States against the backdrop of the administration of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s conduct of the war on the Gaza Strip and his attempt not to be in line with the current US administration’s broad political lines related to the “day after”, are tempting many Israeli analysts to come up with scenarios related to the future of the war and its impact on the policy related to the Palestinian issue, and the horizon of Israeli-American relations alike.
Although most expectations about these scenarios are predominantly intuition, usually known to confuse factual knowledge with a measure of fiction, most analysts agree no more specifically than their consensus that Netanyahu faces more crises that will cast a shadow over recent developments related to the war on the Gaza Strip, which will enter three days in its sixth month.
According to what can be seen from these analyses, Netanyahu is now facing a crisis that some believe is multidimensional, in direct relation to the results of the war itself on the ground on the first hand, and with the internal political arena that has emerged in recent days the issue of the law of recruiting ultra-Orthomodes’ on the other hand, and with the US administration’s position on the war and the fate of the issue of Israeli abductees and on the practices of the Israeli occupation in the West Bank, especially about settlement and looting of land on a third hand.
Regarding Washington’s position, Haaretz military analyst Amos Harel points out that US President Joe Biden remains a strong proponent of Zionism but his administration is as hostile to the current Israeli government as no other US administration has been hostile to an Israeli government in the past (Haaretz, 1/3/2024).
Several other analysts noted that the attacks on the actions and policy of the prime minister are almost a daily topic in the corridors of the current US administration, partly through leaks to the US media, and another through public statements.
In a new position paper issued by the “National Security Research Institute” at Tel Aviv University (28/2/2024), it was emphasized that Israel’s war in the Gaza Strip provokes unprecedented opposition within the United States, and above all among the Democratic Left and young people. Congress has also expressed harsh reservations about Israel’s operations, and attempts have been made to require U.S. military assistance to Israel to change its policy. This opposition, as the paper emphasizes, revealed the rise of the importance of the Muslim community in the United States, and in turn the weak influence of the Jewish community. Last January, public criticism began to bear fruit. Although the US administration has not changed its basic positions, it has escalated its statements, considering that Israel is responsible for prolonging the war and its harsh results, especially in the absence of possibilities related to the “day after.” Concern about the US presidential election campaign in November, in which the Palestinian issue may affect the president’s chances of being re-elected, was also against the backdrop of “changes in the US administration’s response.”
The current belief is that the next few days will be devoted to another U.S. effort to finalize a new deal for the release of the kidnapped, coinciding with the start of Ramadan, which is expected on March 10.
Pending possible developments in the file of the Israeli abductees, which may gradually crumble towards a long truce leading to a ceasefire, we will refer to another issue that has been witnessed specifically (from the severity) in the recent period, which is the issue of emphasizing that Netanyahu’s promises to achieve an absolute and rapid victory in the Gaza Strip become more and more hollow.
Perhaps the most prominent of this emphasis are military affairs analysts in the Israeli media and former military leaders. For example, Major General Reserve Gyora Island, the former head of the National Security Council and the Military Intelligence Division (“Aman”), says that the Gaza war revealed the superficiality and shallowness of the Israeli political establishment, starting with the statements of its hollow leaders that military pressure would lead to a good kidnapped deal, while more than three months ago, Israel, when military pressure was “moderate,” obtained a relatively good deal, with dozens of kidnapped released daily. There is also a hollower term, “absolute victory,” which has no meaning but to surrender Hamas unconditionally, and to release all the kidnapped without conditions. It is clear in his opinion that this will not happen, and that this term coined by the head of government may be a successful electoral slogan, but it is not a real goal (“Yedioth Ahronoth”, 27/2/2024).
Another general in reserve agrees with this conclusion, Amos Yadlin, the former head of the “Aman” division, who confirmed that the “absolute victory” that Netanyahu is trying to appear to be waiting for us behind the door is just an empty slogan of content, and a shed of ashes in Al-Ayoun (Israel TV Channel 12 website, 27/2/2024).
If all of the above is added to the massacre committed by the Israeli army against crowds of Palestinians who were waiting to receive humanitarian aid in the northern Gaza Strip, from a more comprehensive and decisive international demand for a ceasefire, the required conclusion is that Israel stands in the face of several issues that will be difficult to distance itself from its resolution, a conclusion adopted by many political and military experts, including those affiliated with the Prime Minister.
Madar Centre, The Palestinian Centre for Israeli Studies “Madar”, is an independent research center specializing in Israeli affairs, based in the city of Ramallah. Founded in 2000. This article was published in Arabic, English translation is by Apple.