Israeli forces continue to besiege Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis, and carried out an assassination raid inside a Jenin hospital disguised as doctors and civilians. A truce and captive exchange deal between Israel and Hamas could be confirmed soon.
- 26,751+ killed* and at least 65,636 wounded in the Gaza Strip.
- 387+ Palestinians killed in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem
- Israel revises its estimated October 7 death toll down from 1,400 to 1,147.
- 557 Israeli soldiers killed since October 7, and at least 3,221 injured.**
*This figure was confirmed by Gaza’s Ministry of Health. Some rights groups put the death toll number at more than 33,000 when accounting for those presumed dead.
** This figure is released by the Israeli military.
- Israeli force of ten soldiers storm Ibn Sina Hospital in Jenin and kill three Palestinians with silenced pistols.
- Israeli forces siege Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis, bar entry and exit to Palestinians.
- Dr. Asharf al-Qudra says Israeli forces are besieging Nasser Hospital for a second consecutive week, trapping 150 medical staff, 450 injured, and 3,000 displaced Palestinians.
- The Palestine Red Crescent Society loses communication with team sent to rescue 6-year-old girl in Gaza.
- Israeli forces push Palestinians sheltering in Al-Shifa’ Hospital to eastern areas as it bombs southern and western Gaza City.
- Israel bombs house of Madoukh family in the Al-Sabra neighborhood in Gaza City, killing at least 20 people. It also bombs Rafah’s El-Geneina neighborhood, Nuseirat camp, Batn al-Sameen area, and Al-Amal neighborhood in Khan Younis.
- Israeli protest attempts to block aid trucks entering into Gaza Strip from the Kerem Abu Salem crossing.
- Israeli “Order 9” movement calls on government to bar entry to humanitarian aid into Gaza as long as Hamas holds Israeli captives.
- UN warns, “If the funding is not resumed, UNRWA will not be able to continue its services and operations across the region, including in Gaza, beyond the end of February.”
- According to a potential deal between Israel and Hamas, there will be 45-day pause of fighting, during which Hamas will release 35 Israeli captives in return for 4,000 Palestinian prisoners.
- Hamas launches barrage of rockets on Tel Aviv on Monday from Khan Younis and published footage of targeting Israeli tanks with 105mm Al-Yaseen anti-tank shells.
Israel Genocide in Gaza Continues
- Israeli authorities said that commandos disguised as Palestinians killed three gunmen in a hospital in the occupied West Bank city of Jenin, one of whom they accused of planning an imminent attack.
- An Israeli intelligence dossier that prompted a cascade of countries to halt funds for a U.N. Palestinian aid agency includes allegations that some staff took part in abductions and killings during the Oct. 7 raid that sparked the Gaza war. U.N. Bureau Chief Michelle Nichols tells the daily Reuters World News podcast what the cut-off in funding could mean for Palestinians – listen now.
Israeli authorities said undercover commandos killed three Palestinian militants today in a raid on a hospital in the West Bank. Hamas said one of the dead was a member of its group, while the allied Islamic JIhad claimed the two others. Raneen Sawafta reports for Reuters.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) rejected claims by Palestinian state news agency WAFA that it carried out a strike near a U.N. relief school in Gaza City yesterday.
More countries have halted funding to the U.N. Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA) over the alleged role of some of its staff in the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks, with the latest addition to the list including Japan, Austria, and New Zealand. However, the European Union announced it will not suspend funding to UNRWA, pending the outcome of the internal investigation launched. The UNRWA said it is “extremely desperate” and that the “humanitarian needs in Gaza are growing by the hour.” Yesterday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the agency is “perforated with Hamas,” following a recently released Israeli intelligence dossier that alleges nearly 200 UNRWA workers are Hamas or Islamic Jihad operatives, without providing detailed evidence. Robert Plummer reports for BBC News.
Twenty aid organizations, including the Norwegian Refugee Council, Oxfam, and Save the Children, said in a joint statement yesterday that UNRWA’s role in Gaza was irreplaceable and that “the population faces starvation, looming famine and an outbreak of disease.” The Executive of Human Rights Watch, Kenneth Roth, also posted on X saying, “The European Union will NOT suspend funding to UNRWA. It will await the results of the investigation that UNRWA announced.” Meanwhile, Doctors Without Borders said in a separate statement that “any additional limitations on aid will result in more deaths and suffering,” adding that such steps contradict the provisional measures issued by the International Court of Justice last week.
REGIONAL RESPONSE
Representatives from Israel, Qatar, Egypt, and the United States have agreed to have Qatar present a preliminary framework to Hamas that proposes a six-week pause in the war in Gaza for Hamas to exchange some hostages for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel, officials say. The talks are at an early stage, and details would need to be finalized if Hamas agrees to build on the framework. The terms of the framework were sketched out on Sunday in Paris by the four states. The prime and foreign minister of Qatar flew from the meeting in Paris to Washington where he met with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken yesterday. While Blinken declined to give details, he said the proposal is a “compelling one” and “there is some real hope going forward.” Edward Wong and Julian E. Barnes report for the New York Times.
A day after officials from the United States, Israel, Egypt, and Qatar met in Paris to discuss a nascent ceasefire proposal, Hamas spokesperson Osama Hamdan acknowledged yesterday that “great efforts” were being made by the mediators but said, “We have not received anything.” Hwaida Saad and Anushka Patil report for the New York Times.
Israeli Shin Bet security agency director Ronen Bar visited Cairo yesterday and met with his Egyptian counterpart, Abbas Kamel, two Israeli sources said. The two parties discussed potential plans after the war and non-hostage-related issues, including the situation along the Philadelphi Corridor and how Egypt-Israel can work together to prevent weapons smuggling into Gaza that would enable Hamas to rearm. Barak Ravid reports for Axios.
EGYPT STRIVES TO CONTAIN CONFLICTS RAGING THROUGHOUT THE REGION. Bottom Line Up Front:
* Facing conflict and instability on virtually all its borders, Egypt is stepping up its diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the Israel-Hamas war.
* Egypt’s historic role in Gaza, and Palestinian affairs more broadly, adds significant weight to Cairo’s mediation.
* Cairo anticipates that de-escalation in Gaza will end Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, assaults that are damaging Egypt’s economy.
* Despite working with regional and international stakeholders, including Russia, Egypt has been unable to settle the internal conflicts in neighboring Sudan and Libya.
Egypt, which maintains close ties to Israel, the United States, other Arab states, as well as some Hamas leaders, is a pivotal regional stakeholder in the multi-faceted effort to de-escalate and eventually bring about an end to the Israel-Hamas war. As an illustration of the significance of Egypt’s ties to all the parties to the war and other mediators, Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns met with the prime minister of Qatar as well as the heads of Egyptian and Israeli intelligence, Abbas Kamel and David Barnea, respectively, over the weekend. In November, Director Burns’ mediation efforts, working with the same counterparts, helped finalize a limited Israel-Hamas ceasefire and the release of 105 Israeli and third-country hostages captured in its October 7 attack on Israel. Nearly 180 Palestinians were released from Israeli prisons in exchange. The Burns
trip will attempt to forge another ceasefire and hostage release, potentially using the deal as a springboard to end the war and establish a roadmap to a broader Israeli-Palestinian peace settlement. Moreover, the trip follows a visit by a top U.S. Middle East envoy, Brett McGurk, to Egypt and Qatar to try to bridge the divides holding up another round of hostage releases.
INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE
The United Kingdom is considering recognizing a Palestinian state, British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said yesterday. Cameron told a Westminster reception that the United Kingdom has the responsibility to set out what a Palestinian state would look like and said Palestinians would have to be shown “irreversible progress” toward a two-state solution. “We have a responsibility there because we should be starting to set out what a Palestinian state would look like, what it would comprise, how it would work and crucially, looking at the issue, that as that happens, we with allies will look at the issue of recognizing a Palestinian state, including at the United Nations … That could be one of the things that help to make this process irreversible.” Cameron also urged Israel to allow more humanitarian support into Gaza and said it was “ludicrous” that British and other foreign aid was being sent back at the border. James Landale reports for BBC News.
U.S. RESPONSE
The U.S. has a long history of giving aid to Israel. Some want it to end. For over 70 years, Israel has enjoyed unparalleled U.S. support in the form of economic and military aid. But the future of this arrangement is now uncertain given the increasingly vocal opposition to Israel’s war in Gaza from progressives like Sen. Bernie Sanders. WATCH
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told U.S. officials last week that he and the Israeli military will not permit the rebuilding of illegal outposts or settlements by Israeli settlers inside the Gaza Strip, four U.S. and Israeli officials said. Gallant stressed the buffer zone would be temporary and for security purposes only, according to a senior Israeli official and two U.S. officials. The statement follows concerns by the Biden administration that the buffer zone will be used to rebuild settlements that were dismantled during the 2005 Israeli pullout from the enclave. Barak Ravid reports for Axios.
IRAN-BACKED MILITANTS
President Biden and other top U.S. officials discussed Sunday a “significant military response” following the drone attack by Iran-backed militias near the Jordan-Syria border that killed three U.S. soldiers and wounded dozens. A U.S. official said, “We don’t want war but those who are behind this attack need to feel our response.” The U.S. Defense Secretary meanwhile vowed the United States would take “all necessary actions” to defend its troops. Barak Ravid, Andrew Solender, and Dave Lawler report for Axios.
The three U.S. soldiers killed in the Jordan attack on Sunday have been named as Sgt. William Jerome Rivers, 46, Specialist Kennedy Ladon Sanders, 24, and Specialist Breonna Alexsondria Moffett, 23. The United States has blamed Iran-backed groups for the attack, with the Pentagon saying the operation carried “footprints” of Kataib Hezbollah. A U.S. official added that the drone used in the attack appeared to be a “type of Shahed drone,” a one-way attack drone Tehran has been providing to Russia. Fiona Niomin reports for BBC News.
The U.S. failed to stop the attack in Jordan when the enemy drone approached its target at the same time as a U.S. drone was returning to the base, U.S. officials said yesterday. The return of the U.S. drone led to confusion about whether the incoming drone was friend or foe, officials have concluded so far, although they cautioned the inquiry into the attack was in an early stage. A U.S. Defense official said Washington has yet to find evidence that Iran directed the attack, while White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters, “Clearly there is a responsibility that appropriately needs to be laid at the feet of leaders in Tehran.” Nancy A. Youssef, Michael R. Gordon, and Sune Engel Rasmussen report for the Wall Street Journal.
The United Kingdom, in coordination with the United States, has imposed fresh sanctions on senior Iranian officials who are members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), in a bid to tackle what it says is a threat to U.K. domestic security. “The Iranian regime and the criminal gangs who operate on its behalf pose an unacceptable threat to the U.K.’s security,” British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said. “The U.K. and U.S. have sent a clear message – we will not tolerate this threat.” The sanctions include asset freezes and travel bans but fall short of a full prescription of the IRGC by the United Kingdom. POLITICO report
By: Antoine Shalhat is a Palestinian/Israeli citizen Writer, journalist, and translator. and an Israeli affairs expert
With the beginning of the seventeenth week of the Israeli war of destruction and genocide in the Gaza Strip, the interest has increased more and more in Israel in the following: 1- The results achieved on the path of achieving the goals set for it; 2- The anatomy of the behavior of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, what he seeks and aspires towards, the motives behind this, and its incompatibility with what is circulating on the “American agenda” of the war; 3- A study of the extent to which condoning or reluctant to adopt a plan for what is described as the “day after” of the war constitutes an obstacle to the possibility of achieving a strategic achievement of the battles.
These are all topics that will be addressed in more detail in this contribution.
1- The explosion in Maghazi:
Although the circumstances of the killing of 21 Israeli reservists in the explosion that occurred in Al-Maghazi camp on January 22 remain vague, the most prominent conclusions about it included linking it to the latest developments in the war, the conduct of the battles and their consequences, foremost of which is that the Palestinian resistance elements in the Gaza Strip are still close to the border area with Israel. Most of those conclusions were not independent of asserting what appears to be a near-consensus about the intractable of the war. According to all Israeli military analysts, the reserve formations were combing the area where the explosion occurred to turn it into a security belt between the borders of the Strip and its suburbs. The point in kind where the explosion occurred is 600 meters from the border, about a kilometer from Kibbutz, but “Hamas fighters could have fired sniper or anti-armor shells and mortar bombs without any inconvenience,” asserts the chief military analyst Ron Ben-Yishai (“Yedioth Ahronoth,” 23/1/2024), who added that the killing of the 21 soldiers could undermine the legitimacy that the Israeli public gives to the war. In many other analyses, it is pointed out that the incident, which killed 21 reservists, will add to the arguments of the right, led by the Likud Party, that the fighting in the Gaza Strip should continue. Defence Minister Yoav Galant said that “the fall of the fighters forces us to achieve the goals of the war,” thus summing up the arguments of the right. The representatives of the right also continue to repeat the message that the continuation of the war is a fundamental necessity for the security of Israel and its population, and the offensive operation in Khan Younis, which began in recent days, is the actual content of this speech. But despite the operation in Khan Younis, the most important since the IDF moved into the third phase of the fighting, and the high-tone rhetoric in the government, there is also a civilian movement opposed to the continued fighting, as most analyses in Haaretz confirm. According to one of these analyses (by Rafit Hecht, 24/1/2024), increasing awareness about the issue of the kidnapped, the increase in sympathy with their families, as well as the continuation of public talk about the high prices can certainly strengthen this movement, and cannot infiltrate the government, even if it is difficult at this stage to understand the magnitude of its power.
2- Netanyahu will remain at stake:
The articles confirm that Benjamin Netanyahu did the longest term in this position throughout Israel’s history, and he continues to boast that his term longer than that of the founder of the state, David Ben-Gurion, will be confined to an “introductory chapter” within his autobiography, and will be taught in history classes under the title “Factors and motives that led to the tragedy of October 7, 2023,” as asserted by Haaretz editor-in (27/1/2024).
In the days since the previous issue last week, an increased focus on Netanyahu’s performance was observed in everything related to bilateral relations between Israel and the United States, in light of the phone conversation between him and US President Joe Biden a month after the break between them. In the opinion of Amos Harel, a military analyst for Haaretz (22/1/2024), and others of course, this phone conversation was supposed to signal an improvement in relations. However, the two contradictory statements issued by both the White House and the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office regarding this conversation point to the depth of the disparity between the two parties. According to Harel, the Biden administration continues to insist not only on giving the Palestinian Authority in Gaza a role in the day after the war but on a “two-state solution.” However, Netanyahu is entrenching his renewed political positioning in the domestic arena, building his hopes that he will prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state. This is his new card, after he attempted to confer on himself the status of “master of security” permanently collapsed in the attack carried out by Hamas. Netanyahu’s public pulse towards Biden also serves his domestic political efforts to restore the voices of right-wingers, largely. However, it is not at all certain that this movement will help him, given that Hamas has not been defeated in the war so far.
As for the most prominent Israeli expert in American affairs, Professor Eitan Ghalboa, (“Maariv”, 21/1/2024), confirms that the two conflicting statements issued by President Biden’s office and Netanyahu regarding their phone conversation indicate a growing disagreement between the United States and Israel over the “day after the war.” Biden said Netanyahu has not refused to establish a Palestinian state, and there is still a chance of reaching an agreement on the matter. Netanyahu replied: “In any agreement for the foreseeable future, Israel must control all the territory west of the Jordan River. This goes against the idea of Palestinian sovereignty, and I say this to the Americans.” In a reading of Ghalboua, Netanyahu’s rejection of Biden’s vision of a Palestinian state is a particularly sensitive nerve for the Democratic Party in the United States, and the emergence of angry voices from Congress was not late. Recently, the parties exchanged criticisms and spoke in particular to their bases. Netanyahu challenged Biden when he said he was the only one who could say “no” to the president of the United States, and block the establishment of a Palestinian state. And that seems to be the basic slogan he will use in his upcoming election battle. The White House has leaked that it is working on a new Marshall Plan in Gaza “the next day.” The Biden administration assumes that elections will be held in Israel soon, and Netanyahu will not win them. But when Biden compares Hamas’ rejection to the Israeli government’s rejection, he specifically strengthens Netanyahu.
Ghalboa points out that since the beginning of the war, the Biden administration has been pressing Netanyahu to decide who will control a civilian in Gaza, should Hamas be expelled from there. This is also the position of the Israeli army, because the answer is very necessary for the continuation of military operations. Not only has Netanyahu not responded, he even refuses to discuss the issue in the government. Biden believes that the main reason for this is Netanyahu’s desire to maintain his government coalition with Ben-Gvier and Smotrich, so he has submitted to their extremist positions calling for the occupation of the entire sector, the voluntary migration of residents, and the return of Jewish settlement there. Biden also has to think about the presidential election. Netanyahu’s statements against the vision of a Palestinian state have led to dangerous responses from Congress, which could affect, not only the “day after,” but also the continued war.
The Democratic Party’s progressive wing is pressing Biden to require U.S. military assistance to Israel with the Israeli government’s willingness to accept a “two-state solution” in principle. Progressives use a law that requires the use of U.S. weapons to be compliant with U.S. law, and the laws of humanitarian and international war. Because Netanyahu rejected the Palestinian state, the number of senators who want to require U.S. military assistance to Israel has risen from 12 to 18, and even the 15 Jewish members of the U.S. House of Representatives sharply criticized Netanyahu, stating “We are strongly opposed to the prime minister, and the two-state solution is the way forward.” Without congressional approval, the US president cannot send a weapon to Israel. Despite all this, Galboa concludes that Netanyahu is more keen on his government coalition than on Israel’s security and relations with the Americans.
According to a position paper issued by the Institute for National Security Research at Tel Aviv University prepared by Major General Eldad Shafit, who worked in the Military Intelligence Division (AMAN) and was the former head of the Research Department of the Israeli Presidency of the Israeli Government and the former head of the intelligence field in the Office of the Military Secretary of both the Prime Minister and the Minister of Defence (22/1/2024), the statement issued by the White House on 19/1/2024, after the telephone conversation between Biden and Netanyahu, contains a summary of the main issues that are at the heart of the “American agenda”, which are the following issues:
First, in terms of the war effort: the US administration sees the need to continue military pressure on Hamas and its leadership in the Strip and welcomes the change in Israeli action from a large-scale manoeuvre to specific campaigns, time, and geographically. The administration remains steadfast in its position that a ceasefire should not be imposed on Israel, something that will help Hamas return to the accumulation of its power, from this administration’s point of view. But contrary to statements by the White House at the beginning of the fighting, it seems that the US administration no longer emphasizes the goal of defeating Hamas, but is content with general statements, that this movement will not be able in the future to repeat the attack of October 7. In parallel, the administration is signaling that it continues to work to ensure that Israel has everything it needs to defend itself. The administration appreciates that the continuation of the fighting on low heat mitigates the risk of deterioration toward an all-out war with Hezbollah.
Second, increase humanitarian aid and prevent harm to civilians.
Third, the release of Israeli abductees detained in Gaza.
Fourth, the post-war phase: In the White House announcement, following the call between Netanyahu and Biden, it was confirmed that “the president also discussed his vision for achieving more peace, security, and stability for Israel by deepening its integration in the region upon reaching an agreement within the framework of a two-state solution.” The main message from the US administration is that there is a real opportunity to accelerate the process of normalization between Israel and the Arabs, led by Saudi Arabia. Addressing the Davos Economic Conference, U.S. National Security Adviser Jack Sullivan presented the vision Biden discussed with Netanyahu, which reflects the U.S. belief that war should lead to a regional reality that guarantees security for Israel and an independent state for the Palestinians.
According to the paper, the US administration believes, as understood by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, that the burden of proof regarding the transformation of the war in Gaza into an opportunity to reshape the Middle East, rests with Israel, while it recognizes, for the first time, perhaps, the readiness of the Arab side for it. But this readiness is conditional on advancing a solution to the Palestinian issue. The administration expects that Israel will provide it with a thread that will enable it to push in the direction of its political vision, but so far, it seems that the administration is seeing that Israel is slow in responding to this request. Therefore, the administration does not hesitate to express its frustration, particularly through leaks to the American media. It can be appreciated that Biden does not intend to surrender, that his pressure on Israel will increase, and that this estimate has not changed after the Biden-Netanyahu call. The president even told reporters afterward that “it’s not impossible to achieve a two-state solution, even when Netanyahu is in power. There are different types of a two-state solution. There are UN member states, and they do not have an army. Other countries have been restricted. So, I think some ways can be done to ensure that this works.” While Biden continues to show his strong support for Israel, and he does not drift behind the claim that began to rampant among Democratic congressmen demanding that U.S. aid be required to Israel with its positive response to political initiatives, the complex reality of Biden’s campaign and congressional elections, a confrontation that is expected to be severe, will reduce the president’s room for maneuver if he faces difficulties in delivering political achievements in his foreign policies.
Against this background, the paper concludes that we must take into account that the US administration, although the US administration has so far refrained from using tools to pressure Israel, appreciates that the Israeli government is unwilling to cooperate with it on moving towards a public plan on the “day after the war,” which may carry negative projections on the president’s willingness to continue to pay attention to defending Israel’s positions and aiding it in the war.
3- In the importance of discussing the “day after” of the war:
Many Israeli analyses confirm that the Netanyahu government’s reluctance at its behest to discuss the “day after” of the war goes hand in hand with avoiding talking about a comprehensive strategy. According to, for example, Major General Reserve Gadi Shimni, military secretary of both former prime ministers Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert, those who avoid talking about “the day after” and comprehensive strategy assume that the army will succeed alone, or there will be an accumulation of tactical successes, and in the end, this will lead to a strategic achievement. In his opinion, this cannot happen. He continued: “In the Second Lebanon War (2006), we said to ourselves that whenever we accumulate tactical achievements, this will give us a strategic achievement, and this did not happen” (Israel TV Channel 12 website, 24/1/2024).
Shimeni believes that formulating a strategy at the political level requires the participation of the United States, as well as talking about the “day after”, which will direct the military operations of the military in a way that pushes to achieve strategic goals that the political level has not yet known. He also believes that dismantling Hamas is an important goal but ultimately this is not a strategy that can expect 50 years or 100 years forward.
As for the conduct of the battles themselves, Shimni believes that the most important central problems that exist now are the fact that Israel does not exist in the Philadelphia axis (Salah al-Din axis) on the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt. According to his reading along with the readings of a large number of Israeli military analysts, if Israel does not reach the Philadelphia axis, it will not be able to cut the tunnel line “in which weapons and activists flow.”
In this particular axis, the American newspaper “The Wall Street Journal” confirmed that the war on Gaza imposed new calculations on Egyptian-Israeli relations and caused the transformation of relations between the two parties “from just tension to a stage of collapse.” The newspaper returned the reasons for this slippage about Egypt’s warning of the displacement of large numbers of Palestinians from Gaza to the Sinai Peninsula while Israel continues its war in Gaza, in addition to the decline in traffic in the Suez Canal, which exacerbated the situation. She also pointed out that Israel recently tried to get Egypt to accept an Israeli military presence in the Philadelphia axis under the pretext of preventing Hamas from smuggling weapons across the border, which Egypt rejected because it was a violation of its sovereignty.
Cairo asserts that it fully controls the border and has repeatedly rejected Israeli accusations of allowing weapons smuggling into the Gaza Strip. Egypt has on several occasions revealed Israel’s intention to displace Gazans from their land towards the Sinai territories and stressed its rejection of these practices.
This research was published in Arabic by The Palestinian Center for Israeli Studies (MADAR).
English translation by Apple translation service.