Benjamin Netanyahu’s postwar plan would see Israel exerting direct control over a demilitarized Gaza Strip while permanently dismantling UNRWA and assigning “local officials” to govern civilian affairs.

Casualties

• 29,514+ killed* and at least 69,616 wounded in the Gaza Strip.
• 380+ Palestinians killed in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem
• Israel revises its estimated October 7 death toll down from 1,400 to 1,147.
• 576 Israeli soldiers killed since October 7, and at least 3,221 injured.**

*This figure was confirmed by Gaza’s Ministry of Health on Telegram channel. Some rights groups put the death toll number at more than 38,000 when accounting for those presumed dead.

** This figure is released by the Israeli military, showing the soldiers whose names “were allowed to be published.”

Key Developments

• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu unveils “postwar plan” for Gaza, where Israel would control security and play a role in civilian affairs 
• Palestinian presidency rejects Netanyahu’s plan, calling for an independent Palestinian state.
•  Israeli Finance Minister Ben Smotrich set to approve more than 3,000 housing units in West Bank as “Zionist revenge” for shooting operation outside Maale Adumim.
• Israeli forces launch series of attacks on Central Gaza, killing 40 Palestinians and injuring at least 100 others.
• Israeli forces re-enter besieged Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis, as aid agencies strategize how to evacuate 140 stranded patients.
• Several Israeli human rights organizations call upon countries to restore UNRWA funding. 
• West Bank: Israeli forces detain two ten-year-old children from Sinjil, north of Ramallah.
• UN Experts: Arms exports to Israel must stop immediately.
• Foreign ministers gathered for the G20 summit in Rio De Janeiro to discuss the importance of a two-state solution with an independent Palestinian state.
• Israeli Army Radio reports that it is “preparing for war” in Lebanon.
• Israeli airstrike kills two paramedics in the town of Bint Jbeil, Lebanon.

·       Palestine to seek full UN membership, envoy says. Palestine will seek full UN membership and may ask member states to sign a statement welcoming its admission, the Palestinian ambassador to the United Nations said yesterday. 

• “We will intensify these discussions and we will use a variety of things, including we might have a statement and solicit signatures from member states welcoming and supporting the admission of the State of Palestine to membership before in fact going to the (UN) Security Council and to submit a resolution calling for recommendation to admit the state of Palestine as a member of the UN,” Riyad Mansour told reporters in New York.
• Netanyahu unveils plan for Gaza’s future post-Hamas. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu unveiled a plan for the Gaza’s future post-Hamas, which includes the “complete demilitarization” of the enclave, closing off the territory’s southern border with Egypt, as well as the overhaul of Gaza’s civil administration and education systems.

·       Netanyahu unveils postwar Gaza plan. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu unveiled a postwar plan for Gaza for the first time since the start of the war. The short-term objectives of the plan — to fully dismantle Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and secure the release of all Israeli captives — would be followed by the full demilitarization of Gaza, over which Israel would play a role in governing civilian affairs, similar to the way in which it currently controls the West Bank.

Israel’s Genocide War in Gaza Continues

The wrecking of Gaza’s health system goes beyond its hospitals. The strip could see 58,000 excess deaths over the next six months if fighting continues. 

Gaza’s health system is being destroyed at its roots: traumatized doctors, wrecked ambulances and ruined hospitals. Even if the war ended today, studies estimate that thousands more Palestinians would die in the next six months for lack of medical care.

Four months of warfare between Israel and Hamas have generated regional and global dynamics that will shape the Middle East for decades. But the war in Gaza has already clarified two deeply linked central dimensions of the Middle East: Arab states’ low-key, rhetoric-heavy response to the Gaza war and Hamas, and the new reality that those who actually fight and resist Israel and the United States across the region are Arab non-state armed actors (NSAAs) with close ties to Iran. These two symbiotic phenomena indicate how Arab states have become politically and militarily passive in 

the face of stronger adversaries—and hint at the future Middle East order if prevailing conditions persist.

At the outbreak of the war, Arab governments struggled to respond to the political, human, and geo-strategic dimensions of the Gaza crisis, which often contradicted one another. Governments had to walk a delicate line among at least four important considerations: How to support the Palestinian cause, which resonates deeply across the region (and the world, it turns out); how to do this without strengthening Hamas and other Islamist militant allies that most Arab governments see as radicalizing threats; how to criticize the United States and other western powers for enabling Israel’s destruction of Gaza without leading them to curtail their existential financial and security support to many Arab states; and how to provide humanitarian aid for the 2.3 million defenseless civilians in Gaza whom Israel has killed, wounded, and brutalized in genocidal fashion.

Conditions at the Nasser Medical Complex in Khan Younis were rapidly deteriorating yesterday as Israeli forces reinvaded the hospital following a brief withdrawal earlier in the day, the Hamas-run health ministry said. The ministry added that 13 patients who had died from the lack of power and oxygen in recent days had been buried within the hospital complex. Anushka Patil reports for the New York Times.

The U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) has “reached breaking point,” its commissioner Phillippe Lazzarini said yesterday, due to “Israel’s repeated calls to dismantle UNRWA and the freezing of funding by donors at a time of unprecedented humanitarian needs in Gaza.” Doha Madani reports for NBC News.

The crisis in Gaza is “inhumane” and the enclave is a “death zone,” World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said yesterday. “We need a cease-fire now. We need hostages to be released. We need the bombs to stop dropping, and we need unfettered humanitarian access. Humanity must prevail,” he told a media briefing. 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed yesterday to send Israeli negotiators to Paris today for new hostage deal discussions with CIA Director Bill Burns, the Qatari Prime Minister, and the Egyptian spy chief, an Israeli official and a source with direct knowledge told Axios. The decision follows pressure from the Biden administration and internal pressure from the Israeli war cabinet, with President Biden’s top Middle East adviser Brett McGurk urging officials yesterday to send a delegation to negotiate after some progress was made with Hamas. Israel’s war cabinet yesterday “approved sending the delegation and also gave negotiators a mandate to negotiate and not only listen like in the previous round of talks,” an Israeli official said. 

Netanyahu’s plan for post-war Gaza does not bar a role for the Palestinian Authority and stresses that Israel will only allow reconstruction to occur after the enclave is demilitarized, according to a document released yesterday. According to the plan, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will indefinitely maintain operational freedom across the entire Gaza Strip, with Israel creating a “security zone” within Gaza’s territory bordering Israel for “as long as there is a security need for it.” Israel will also control the Egypt-Gaza border, operating “as much as possible in cooperation with Egypt and with the assistance of the United States.” The Gaza Strip would be completely demilitarized except for weapons “necessary to maintain public order,” the document says, and reconstruction would be “carried out with the financing and leadership of countries acceptable to Israel.” Barak Ravid reports for Axios.

Israeli airstrikes have targeted police officers guarding U.N. aid convoys into Gaza in recent weeks, causing the volume of aid delivery to collapse and exposing staff to criminal gangs and looting, U.N. officials said. An average of only 62 trucks have entered Gaza each day over the past two weeks, according to figures by the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, well below the 200 trucks per day Israel has committed to facilitating.

Israel’s far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich called for tighter restrictions on Palestinians and new settlements following a fatal shooting yesterday by three Palestinians at an Israeli checkpoint in Jerusalem. In response, Israel’s national security minister Ben-Gvir said the “freedom of life of the citizens of Israel prevails over the freedom of movement of the residents of the [Palestinian Authority].” Smotrich, Israel’s finance minister, called for Netnayahu to approve a plan to build housing units in the West Bank as retribution for the attack. Doha Madani reports for NBC News.

REGIONAL RESPONSE

Egypt has built more than 3 kilometers of wall in the past week in addition to further clearing over 16 square miles next to its border with Gaza, BBC Verify has found. Egypt has previously denied it is making plans to house Palestinian refugees and said the area is intended as a “logistical hub” for aid. Jake Horton and Daniele Palumbo reports for BBC News.

The Arab States’ Response: Arab States Have Supported and Shunned Hamas in the Gaza War. The Arab states offered Gazans, Hamas, and the larger Palestinian cause a combination of low-key rhetorical, material, and diplomatic support that seemed almost imperceptible and that ultimately was powerless on the global political stage. The support achieved none of the desired goals of reducing or stopping Israel’s attacks, providing Gazans with sufficient aid, or guaranteeing a full Israeli withdrawal from the Strip.

Arab regimes risk being badly beaten if they decide to fight Israeli aggression and they risk domestic turbulence if they remain silent.

There have been a few substantive responses from Arab governments. Egypt and Jordan insisted that they would not accept any Gazans expelled by Israel. Jordan and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) set up field hospitals to treat the wounded, delivered medical supplies through air drops, and established satellite internet links to allow doctors to treat patients in Gaza remotely. Egypt and Qatar continue to mediate among Hamas, Israel, and the United States for brief ceasefires, greater humanitarian aid flows, and exchanges of detainees and hostages.

Immobilized Arab governments find it impossible to join the fight in Gaza or to pursue more powerful solidarity measures such as boycotts or breaking the Israeli and Egyptian siege for several reasons. Read the full text here

U.S. RESPONSE

The U.S. opposition to an immediate ceasefire came under repeated criticism during yesterday’s meeting of the G-20 foreign ministers in Rio de Janeiro. Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira, the host of this year’s annual gathering, began the meeting by decrying the “paralysis” at the U.N. Security Council, which saw Washington veto a third resolution for an immediate ceasefire earlier this week. Australia also warned of “further devastation” that could result from Israel’s “unjustifiable” looming invasion of Rafah. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters that despite strong disagreements on an immediate ceasefire, he viewed the G-20 as largely united when it comes to goals in the conflict. John Hudson reports for the Washington Post.

The U.S. intelligence community has no reason to doubt Israel’s claims that some UNWRA employees were Hamas members and participated in the Oct. 7 attacks, but it lacks independent information, according to officials familiar with the matter. The officials said Washington is not in a position to verify the allegations with a high degree of confidence. Shane Harris and Karen DeYoung report for the Washington Post.

US intelligence casts doubt on Israeli claims of UNRWA-Hamas links, report says. Intel report says some accusations that aid workers participated in Hamas attacks credible but could not be independently verified

US intelligence assesses with “low confidence” that a handful of UNRWA staff participated in the 7 October attack. Yet the US and several European countries suspend aid to UNRWA in the midst of the humanitarian catastrophe unleashed by Israel’s war.

INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE

A legal adviser to China’s foreign ministry told the International Court of Justice (ICJ) today that Palestinians have the “legitimate” right to use force against Israel. “In pursuit of the right to self-determination, Palestinian people’s use of force to resist foreign oppression and to complete the establishment of an independent state is an inalienable right,” Ma Xinmin said on the fourth day of hearings on the legality of Israeli’s occupation of the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Larissa Gao reports for NBC News.

Arms exports to Israel must stop immediately: UN experts.  “Any transfer of weapons or ammunition to Israel that would be used in Gaza is likely to violate international humanitarian law and must cease immediately, UN experts warned.”

The Challenge with the Deter and Degrade Approach in Yemen. The Houthis see the attacks in the Red Sea as part of a broader political project that goes back decades.

The bottom line: The Houthis needed more conflict to realize their political-economic goals. They are betting that by extending the conflict in Yemen, this time against the US, they can eventually seize either Marib or Shabwa, or both. They must be denied!

The Two-State Mirage

How to Break the Cycle of Violence in a One-State Reality. Washington must end “the anomalous practice of using significant U.S. resources to empower behavior that the U.S. finds objectionable and that even conflicts with U.S. interests.”

MILITARY CONFLICT WITH HOUTHIS

U.S. forces shot down six Houthi drones in the Red Sea today identified as “an imminent threat” “likely targeting U.S. and coalition warships,” U.S. Central Command confirmed. A U.K.-owned vessel in the Gulf of Aden was also attacked today after the Yemen group fired two anti-ship ballistic missiles, the statement said. Houthi officials released a statement confirming the attack on the British ship and claiming to have targeted a U.S. destroyer. The group also said it “launched a number of ballistic missiles and drones” at the city of Eilat in Israel. Doha Madani reports for NBC News.