Israeli spokesperson says the assassination of Hamas leader Saleh Al-Aruri was “not an attack on the Lebanese state” while Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Hezbollah pledge resistance will continue. 

Casualties

• 22,313+ killed* and at least 57,296 wounded in the Gaza Strip.
• 321 Palestinians killed in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem
• Israel revises its estimated October 7 death toll down from 1,400 to 1,147.
• 506 Israeli soldiers killed since October 7, and at least 2,193 injured.

*This figure was confirmed by Gaza’s Ministry of Health on January 3. Due to breakdowns in communication networks within the Gaza Strip, the Ministry of Health in Gaza has been unable to regularly and accurately update its tolls since mid-November. Some rights groups say the death toll is higher than 30,000 when accounting for those presumed dead.

Key Developments

• Israel kills Hamas deputy political leader, Saleh Al-Arouri, alongside two commanders and four cadres, injuring eleven others in drone attack in Beirut.
• Arouri was one of masterminds of The Al-Aqsa Flood operation and talked about it openly in an interview with Al-Mayadeen channel in August.
• In the interview, Arouri revealed the Palestinian resistance was ready for a scenario that later manifested in the October 7 surprise attack on Israel.
• Israel’s military spokesperson says Israel is “in a high state of readiness for any scenario” without officially admitting if Tel Aviv was behind the assassination.
• Axios reveals Israel was behind the Arouri killing.
• Hamas political leader Ismael Haniyeh says assassination is “a full-fledged terrorist act” violating Lebanon’s sovereignty.
• Haniyeh says resistance fighters in Gaza turned Israel’s Merkava tanks into “charred coffins” and “no security, stability, or future in the region” without Palestinians achieving their political rights.
• Islamic Jihad says “Al-Arouri assassination would not go unpunished and the resistance would continue until the occupation is defeated.”
• Hezbollah says “this crime will never pass without response and punishment” as Syed Hassan Nasrallah is scheduled to give a speech on third anniversary of U.S. assassination of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani. 
• Israel’s foreign media spokesperson says “whoever did this, it’s not an attack on the Lebanese state. It’s not an attack on the Hezbollah terrorist organization. Whoever did this, it’s an attack on Hamas, that’s very clear.”
• Gaza’s Ministry of Health announces Israel committed ten massacres in the past 24 hours, killing 128 and injuring 261 Palestinians.
• Itamar Ben-Gvir rejects U.S. criticism of calls to force Palestinians from Gaza and says Israel is ‘not another star on the American flag.’
• Israeli forces arrest dozens of Palestinians in West Bank, and fire drone missile on Nour Sham refugee camp in Tulkarm.

• Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri was killed in a drone strike in Lebanon’s capital Beirut, raising the potential risk of the war spreading beyond Gaza. Arouri was seen as a key player in the movement. Maya Gebeily looks at the ramifications of the killing on today’s Reuters World News podcast.
• The United States has reached a deal to extend its military presence at a base in Qatar for another 10 years, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters. The Gulf state has played a key role in mediation talks with Hamas and Israeli officials in relation to the war in Gaza and the release of hostages.

Iran’s Pivotal Figure in the ‘Convergence of the Arenas’ Falls to Israeli Assassination in Lebanon.  

On January 2, 2024, the Israeli army markedly shifted its military strategy, employing a new campaign of assassinations and precision strikes. A significant operation in Beirut, Lebanon, led to the elimination of several key Hamas figures. Israeli authorities have declared all Hamas leaders as legitimate targets. Reports emerging from Beirut’s southern district, Dahyah Al Janoubia, suggest that a drone strike there resulted in the deaths of at least six prominent Hamas leaders. The area, a recognized Hizballah stronghold, has been significantly impacted by the strike. Analysts emphasize the strategic significance of the targeted location, particularly its links to Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah. The precision strike is believed to have hit a third-floor apartment on Hadi Nasrallah Street, an area known for its tight security and reportedly used as a Hamas office. Among the six reported casualties, Hamas has confirmed the death of Saleh al-Arouri, a senior figure within the organization. Additionally, Lebanese sources indicate that Fendi Abu Amer, a top figure in the Qasem Brigade in Lebanon, was also killed in the strike. The Jewish News Syndicate has identified Al-Arouri as a central figure in Hamas, responsible for overseeing operations in Judea and Samaria and serving as the deputy chief of Hamas’s political bureau. His recent presence in Lebanon had been a focal point for Israeli intelligence, especially following the October 7 massacre. Al-Arouri, 57, a founding member of Hamas’s military wing and a significant orchestrator of the group’s operations in the West Bank, has long been a central figure in Hamas’s military strategies. His reputed involvement in coordinating attacks against Israel and his ties with Iran and Damascus have marked him as a key player in the region.Following the news of Al-Arouri’s death, Hizballah leader Nasrallah reportedly canceled a scheduled speech, signaling the potential for heightened tensions. Nasrallah has previously vowed retaliation against any Israeli action targeting Palestinian officials in Lebanon. Israeli media speculate on possible responses, including long-range rocket attacks. Al-Arouri’s threats of a “regional war” in response to targeted killings have been met with stern warnings from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In light of these developments, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken has postponed his planned visit to Israel. Originally scheduled for this Thursday, the visit is expected to be rescheduled for next week, though no new date has been confirmed.

Israel’s Long-Term Gaza War Strategy into 2024. The Israeli army, anticipating the Gaza conflict to persist through 2024, is adjusting its deployment and combat strategies. This prolonged engagement, reported by the Times of Israel, involves demobilizing five reserve brigades to bolster the economy. Despite ongoing airstrikes and ground battles, the army is preparing for a sustained campaign, adapting to the unique operational needs of different Gaza regions. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reiterated the commitment to this extended conflict. 

Opinion: Israel’s Gaza strategy: Create facts on the ground that can’t be undone

Herein lies the menace of Israel’s “facts on the ground” strategy. Israeli leaders have over the years achieved their expansionist goals by gradually, but steadily, carrying out practices widely abhorred by the international community and illegal under international law. In the West Bank, ethnically cleansing all Palestinians in one fell swoop would probably trigger regional and maybe even international intervention, but taking the land incrementally by constructing settlements as stubborn facts on the ground could achieve the same end with less blowback.

Similarly, Israel does not need to kill Gaza’s entire population all at once. All it has to do is ensure the Gaza Strip is uninhabitable and the rest will follow. Israel can once again shrug its shoulders and point to the irreversible reality it created.

It does not have to end this way. The international community, with the U.S. at its helm, could discard its facade of helplessness and leverage their ample economic and diplomatic tools to make it clear to Israel that the mass displacement of Palestinians is unacceptable, that Gazans must be able to return to their homes. Without intervention now, Israel will march ahead, as it did in the West Bank, systematically destroying the viability of all alternative solutions and ensuring another Nakba of historic proportions.

Explosions in Iran, Lebanon Raise Fear of Regional Escalation in Israel-Hamas WarExplosions today at a ceremony marking four years since the killing of a senior Iranian commander killed (AP) at least 73 people and wounded more than 170 others, Iranian state-run media reported. They come a day after (WaPo) a blast in a suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, killed a senior political leader of Palestinian militant group Hamas, which the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah has blamed on Israel. Both events have triggered fears that the war between Israel and Hamas could expand beyond the Gaza Strip.  While Israel did not publicly claim responsibility for yesterday’s blast near Beirut, a U.S. defense official told reporters that Israel was responsible and French President Emmanuel Macron called on Israel to refrain from escalation (Le Monde, AFP) in Lebanon. Israel and Hezbollah have been trading strikes across the Israel-Lebanon border since October 7, and Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah warned Israel (WaPo) in August that a strike inside Lebanon’s border would invoke a strong reaction.

Analysis“It’s difficult to assess exactly how Hezbollah will respond [to the Beirut killing], but it will likely retaliate in a manner that is at once an escalation that matches the scope of the Israeli assassination and restores the balance of deterrence, but also one which remains at a sub-threshold level, i.e. short of all out war,” Cardiff University’s Amal Saad posts.  “Iran has multiple foes who could be behind [today’s] assault, including exile groups, militant organizations and state actors. Iran has supported Hamas as well as the Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthi rebels,” the Associated Press’s Jon Gambrell writes. Read the full suite of Foreign Affairsand CFR.org resources on Israel and the current conflict.

Israel’s Genocide in Gaza Continues

Senior Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri was killed yesterday in a suspected Israeli strike in Beirut. Arouri was a founder of the Hamas military wing, the deputy head of its political bureau, and an architect of the group’s Oct. 7 attacks that killed 1,200 people. Hamas confirmed Arouri’s death in a statement. Israeli military officials said they are preparing for retaliatory strikes from Hezbollah and Hamas militants in Lebanon. Dion Nissenbaum, Adam Chamseddine, Benoit Faucon, and Summer Said report for the Wall Street Journal. 

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) circulated a warning this morning around the city of Khan Younis in southern Gaza, urging residents to leave areas designated a “combat zone.” BBC News reports.

A total of 22,313 people have died in the war since Oct. 7, according to figures releasedtoday by the Hamas-run health ministry. 

REGIONAL RESPONSE

Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati condemned the strike in Beirut reported to have killed a top Hamas leader. Meanwhile, Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib said his government was talking to Hezbollah to “impress on them that they should not respond themselves,” but added that “we don’t tell them, we dialogue with them in this regard.” The next 24 hours will clarify “whether they respond or not,” Habib said. BBC Newsreports.

Yemen’s Houthi group condemned the killing of a senior Hamas official yesterday, calling it a “brutal and cowardly crime.” They described Saleh al-Arouri as a “leader” of Palestinian resistance, expressing support for retaliatory action against Israel. Niamh Kennedy reports for CNN.

INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE

The U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), the United Nations peacekeeping mission responsible for patrolling the unofficial border between Lebanon and Israel, said it is “deeply concerned” about  rising regional tensions following the Beirut strike that killed a senior Hamas leader. Spokesperson Kandice Ardiel said, “We continue to implore all parties to cease their fire, and any interlocutors with influence to urge restraint.” BBC News reports. 

A former UK ambassador to Lebanon said the killing of a top Hamas leader yesterday is a “moment of real jeopardy,” adding that both Lebanon and Israel will be worried about a “miscalculation drawing them deeper into the conflict.” BBC News reports. Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron said it was “essential to avoid any escalatory attitude, particularly in Lebanon,” in response to the killing. Aurelien Breeden reports for the New York Times.

U.S. RESPONSE

Israel carried out the strike that killed a senior Hamas leader in Beirut, according to a U.S. official. Israeli government spokesperson Mark Regev said Israel has “not taken responsibility” for the attack, but added that “whoever did it must be clear that this was not an attack on the Lebanese state. It was not even an attack on Hezbollah. Whoever did this did a surgical strike against the Hamas leadership.” Alex Marquardt reports for CNN.

A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers of the Senate Intelligence Committee traveled to the Middle East last night to meet with senior Israeli officials. “We’re going to assess the status of the war as well as what the opportunities are for regional allies to create a path to peace,” said Senator Kirsten Gillibrand. Gillibrand said her group is one of “several congressional delegations” in the region. Manu Raju and Morgan Rimmer report for CNN.

U.S. spy agencies believe Hamas used the Al-Shifa hospital complex to command forces and hold “at least a few hostages,”  according to newly declassified intelligence.A senior U.S. intelligence official said intelligence agencies gathered information that Hamas had evacuated the complex in the days before the operation and destroyed documents and electronics before vacating. The intelligence assessment also said that Israel was at least partially correct in claiming hostages were being held in Al-Shifa, but that those hostages appear to have been moved when Hamas evacuated. Julian E. Barnes reports for the New York Times.

The U.S. State Department denounced statements made by Israel’s National Security Minister Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich calling for the resettlement of Palestinians outside of Gaza.  “This rhetoric is inflammatory and irresponsible. We have been told repeatedly and consistently by the Government of Israel, including by the Prime Minister, that such statements do not reflect the policy of the Israeli government…We have been clear, consistent, and unequivocal that Gaza is Palestinian land and will remain Palestinian land, with Hamas no longer in control of its future and with no terror groups able to threaten Israel,” the State Department statement said. Barek Ravid reports for Axios.

Netanyahu Is Getting Crushed by Gaza WarTL/DR: 85% of Israelis want Netanyahu, who has served as prime minister three different times since 1996, to hand over control to someone new when the war ends, according to a new survey.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing a significant decline in support due to the ongoing war in Gaza. A new survey indicates that 85% of Israelis desire a change in leadership once the war concludes. Netanyahu’s firm stance against Hamas, marked by heavy airstrikes in Gaza, has not translated into public approval. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have recently announced a partial withdrawal from Gaza, hinting at a strategic shift. Of those Israelis surveyed, more than 56 % said that continued fighting against Hamas is the best way to bring about the recovery of Israeli hostages. Just 24% were in favor of releasing all the Palestinian prisoners held by Israel in return for the release of all the hostages.Why it matters: Netanyahu’s dwindling support amidst the Gaza conflict is significant as it reflects a shift in public opinion in Israel. This change could have profound implications for the region’s future political and military strategies. The public’s growing dissatisfaction with Netanyahu’s leadership and their resistance to external influence, especially from the U.S., indicates a potential change in Israel’s domestic and foreign policy approach, affecting the broader dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. What happens now? Netanyahu’s political future appears uncertain as the Gaza war diminishes. While there’s no immediate mechanism to remove him from power, his political survival is tied to the successful prosecution of the war. The emergence of figures like Benny Gantz and other cabinet members suggests potential shifts in government or open elections. Netanyahu’s ability to navigate this turbulent period and maintain his position will depend on the war’s outcome and his response to the growing public and political pressures. per reading:Netanyahu Is Getting Crushed by Gaza War

THE TRAJECTORY OF THE ISRAEL-LEBANON FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN

Bottom Line Up Front:
* Escalating exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah suggest that the Israel-Lebanon front still has the potential to devolve into all-out conflict, especially following yesterday’s assassination of the deputy Hamas chief, Salah al-Arouri, and five other Hamas members by a drone strike in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon.
* Israel insists that Hezbollah redeploy its forces away from the border to meet the terms of a 2006 armistice as outlined in United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701.
* U.S. officials fear that an eruption of the Israeli-Hezbollah war would inevitably expand the conflict into a broader regional conflagration.
* The prospects for U.S., French, and Arab diplomacy to calm the Israel-Lebanon border remain largely uncertain.