Casualties:

• 23,357+ killed* and at least 59,410 wounded in the Gaza Strip.
• 385 Palestinians killed in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem
• Israel revises its estimated October 7 death toll down from 1,400 to 1,147.
• 520 Israeli soldiers killed since October 7, and at least 2,193 injured.**

*This figure was confirmed by Gaza’s Ministry of Health on January 10. Some rights groups put the death toll number closer to 30,000 when accounting for those presumed dead.

**This figure is according to a release by the Israeli military. 

Key Developments

• South Africa presents case of genocide against Israel before International Court of Justice.
• Al Jazeera: sources say meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas was “quite tense, and there were a lot of arguments and disagreements.”
• WHO: Israel rejects medical aid missions to Gaza, forcing World Health Organization to cancel mission for sixth time since December 26 over security concerns. 
• PRCS: Four members of ambulance crew killed in “deliberate” and “targeted” attack at entrance of Deir al-Balah in central Gaza.
• UN: Aid to north Gaza blocked, more hospitals could close.
• In response to the UN resolution condemning Red Sea attacks, Yemen’s Ansar Allah accuses U.S., Israel of violating international law in Gaza. Meanwhile, Ansar Allah targets U.S. naval vessel in “preliminary” retaliatory attack.
• Despite overwhelming evidence, White House national security spokesperson John Kirby says U.S. sees “no indication” that Israel is targeting journalists in Gaza.
• Four members of PRC’s ambulance crew and journalist Ahmad Badir killed by Israeli airstrikes in an alleged “safe zone.”
• Israeli forces badly damage UK charity-funded center for disabled children in Nour Shams refugee camp in Tulkarem, northern occupied West Bank.

South Africa at the ICJ: A compelling case for genocide

On Thursday, South Africa stood before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in the first of the two-day-long public proceedings to hear South Africa’s case against Israel.

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South Africa’s legal team presented a mountain of evidence, accusing Israel of genocide and of violating the UN Genocide Convention with its actions in the Gaza Strip since October 7.

The court hearing took place for three hours. It consisted of detailed descriptions of what South Africa says is a compelling case for recognizing that genocide is taking place, demanding an emergency suspension of Israel’s offensive in Gaza, which South Africa’s legal team said was aimed at bringing about “the destruction of the population.”

The argument of South Africa’s legal team drew significant online praise because it did not begin its narrative from October 7 but from 1948. 

South Africa’s team powerfully kicked off the hearing with an acknowledgment of “the ongoing Nakba of the Palestinian people through Israel’s colonization since 1948,” stressing that the violence and the destruction in Palestine and Israel did not begin on October 7, 2023.

“In the Gaza Strip, at least since 2004, Israel continues to exercise control over the airspace, territorial waters, land crossings, water, electricity and civilian infrastructure, as well as key government functions.”

Professor Max du Plessis, one of the lawyers representing the case, added that what is happening in Gaza now is not correctly framed as a simple conflict between two parties but instead entails destructive acts perpetrated by an occupying power, Israel, that has subjected Palestinians to the oppressive and prolonged violation of their rights to self-determination for more than half a century.

The legal team also highlighted that “no armed attack on a state territory, no matter how serious, even an attack involving atrocity crimes, can provide justification for or defense to breaches to the convention whether it’s a matter of law or morality.”

The “first genocidal act is the mass killing of Palestinians in Gaza,” South African representative Adila Hassim said while showing photos of mass graves where bodies were buried, “often unidentified.”

“Israel deployed 6,000 bombs per week. At least 200 times, it has deployed 2,000-pound (907kg) bombs in southern Gaza, which it designated safe. No one is spared. Not even newborns. UN chiefs have described it as a graveyard for children.”

Hassim went on to explain the contextual information surrounding Gaza, including Israel’s tight control over the space’s territorial waters, land crossings, water, and electricity, which has been largely excluded from the conversation in mainstream media. 

Israel’s second genocidal act was outlined as the infliction of serious bodily or mental harm to Palestinians in Gaza, which violates Article 2B of the Genocide Convention, leaving close to 60,000 Palestinians wounded and maimed.

“Israel’s political leaders, military commanders and persons holding official positions have systematically and in explicit terms declared their genocidal intent,” said Tembeka Ngcukaitobi, the second lawyer representing South Africa.

Ngcukaitobi went on to say that genocidal rhetoric is commonplace within the Israeli Knesset while offering up examples, which he said are then acted upon by Israeli society. 

“Soldiers believe that this language and their actions are acceptable because the destruction of Palestinian life in Gaza is articulated state policy.”

Triestino Mariniello, a reader in law at Liverpool John Moores University and a member of the legal team representing Gaza victims at the International Criminal Court, told Al Jazeera that South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the ICJ has a strong chance of succeeding, as it shows how Israeli “conduct has been put in place with the intent to destroy” Palestinians in Gaza as a group.

“Generally, what is difficult in relation to genocide is to prove the intent to commit genocide,” said Mariniello. “But the South African authorities here have submitted a list of statements by Israeli political and military leaders showing clear genocidal intent.”

“Legally, the decision is binding. Then, of course, the enforcement of the decision will be political,” Mariniello told Al Jazeera. “Just to be clear, every state has a legal obligation, not just a political obligation, to enforce any decision coming from the International Court of Justice, and I would say it would be really a scandal if states do not implement such a decision.”

In the hours leading up to the hearing, Netanyahu released a video statement the day before the hearing “to make a few points clear.”

The Prime Minister went on to claim that “Israel has no intention of permanently occupying Gaza or displacing its civilian population” and that they are “fighting Hamas terrorists” in “full compliance with international law.

Israel will defend itself against South Africa’s genocide case on Friday in front of the ICJ.

“The legacy of a liberated South Africa lives on as a country that defeated apartheid takes the Israeli apartheid regime to The Hague for genocide,” Palestinian-American congresswoman Rashida Tlaib said on X, adding that the U.S., the UK, and Israel were some of the last nations to end support for the apartheid regime in South Africa.

“Unfortunately, I must emphasize that the Palestinians in Gaza will not be watching the proceedings of the [ICJ] because they are too busy dying,” Marwan Bishara, an author on global politics and a leading authority on U.S. foreign policy, told Al Jazeera.

 

 

 

 

Israel’s Genocide in Gaza Continues

The U.N.’s International Court of Justice (ICJ) begins a public hearing today in a case brought by South Africa accusing Israel of committing genocide against Palestnians in Gaza. The ICJ has the ability to deliver only an opinion on the genocide allegations, as the proceedings are not a criminal trial. South Africa will make submissions today, calling for “provisional measures” to be urgently issued by the ICJ, saying Israel’s actions “are intended to bring about the destruction of a substantial part of the Palestinian national, racial and ethnical group.” Israel will present its case tomorrow in response to these allegations. Oliver Slow reports for BBC News.

Palestinians hail South Africa for bringing Gaza ‘genocide’ case

Dozens of Palestinians gathered in front of the statue of Nelson Mandela in the occupied West Bank to thank South Africa for bringing a “genocide” case against Israel over its bombardment of Gaza. The crowd waved Palestinian flags, listened to speeches and held signs saying “Stop the genocide” and “Thank you South Africa”. Hearings at the UN’s top court will begin today with South Africa hoping the judges will compel Israel to halt its bombardment. South Africa’s ruling African National Congress has long supported the Palestinian cause, often linking it to its own struggle against the apartheid government, which had cooperative relations with Israel. Mandela famously said South Africa’s freedom would be “incomplete without the freedom of the Palestinians”. While the UN’s International Court of Justice (ICJ) makes binding decisions, it has little ability to enforce them. Nonetheless, Israel and the United States have reacted furiously to the case.

‘We should be worried’: Israel faces peril at The Hague in Gaza ‘genocide’ case

Israel, on Thursday, will for the first time in its history find itself in the dock in the International Court of Justice in The Hague — charged with genocide.

Although the idea that Israel is committing genocide in the war in Gaza, meaning intentionally murdering Palestinian civilians, might seem outlandish to some, the allegations are extremely serious and even an interim ruling against Israel could have a severe impact on its international status and global reputation, with potentially dire diplomatic and political consequences.

A ruling against Israel could even affect the ongoing conduct of the war against the Hamas terror group’s regime in Gaza.

The Palestine Red Crescent said an Israeli drone missile hit an ambulance in Gaza yesterday, killing four crew members and the two patients it was transporting. The ambulance was approaching the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in the city of Deir al Balah, the group said, adding, “our colleagues were intentionally targeted while inside an ambulance clearly marked with the Red Crescent emblem.” Anushka Patil reports for the New York Times.

Israeli hostages held in the Gaza Strip “will not be returned alive” unless Israeli forces leave, a Hamas spokesperson said yesterday at a news conference in Lebanon. The statement highlights the predicament facing the Israeli government, which has repeatedly vowed to release hostages while pursuing the war and defeating Hamas. Hwaida Saad reports for the New York Times.

In a rebuke against right-wing ministers of his own coalition government, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said yesterday, “I want to make a few points absolutely clear: Israel has no intention of permanently occupying Gaza or displacing its civilian population.” Alexander Smith reports for NBC News. 

U.S. RESPONSE

Senior Biden adviser Amos Hochstein will visit Beirut today to continue efforts to calm tensions along the Israeli-Lebanese border, the White House said. The trip follows Netanyahu and other senior officials telling Hochstein last week that there is only a short timeframe to find a diplomatic solution that will prevent a war between Israel and Hezbollah. Barak Ravid reports for Axios.

The number of antisemitic incidents in the United States increased by 360% following the Oct. 7 attacks, according to new data from the Anti-Defamation League. Preliminary data shows there was an average of nearly 34 antisemitic incidents reported each day. “The American Jewish community is facing a threat level that’s now unprecedented in modern history,” the CEO of the group said. Daniel Arkin reports for NBC News. 

West Bank diplomacy. 

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah on Wednesday to discuss the Israel-Hamas war and future governance of Gaza.

The Biden administration has proposed having a “revamped and revitalized” Palestinian Authority, which currently oversees the West Bank, also assume control of Gaza after the war ends. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu opposes the idea, and last week, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant laid out a different vision for postwar Gaza that would see Palestinians who are not affiliated with Hamas govern the territory rather than the Palestinian Authority.

During his meeting with Blinken, Abbas said Palestinians would not accept any agreement that keeps Gaza separate from the West Bank. The Palestinian Authority also reportedly provided Blinken with a list of proposed internal reforms on areas such as free speech and corruption that it would be open to making as part of a broader deal to end the war and take control of Gaza. Experts have pointed to the Palestinian Authority’s corruption, authoritarian governance, and weakness—including its loss of effective control over key parts of the West Bank—as major challenges it would face in trying to govern Gaza.

Blinken tells Bibi Saudis want peace deal, but not without two-state solution

Secretary of State Blinken told Israeli leaders that Saudi Arabia wants to normalize relations with Israel after the Gaza war ends, but it won’t agree to any deal if the Israeli government doesn’t commit to the principle of a two-state solution, according to two US and Israeli officials. Blinken also made clear to the Israeli officials that Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries won’t get involved in day-after solutions for Gaza — mainly reconstruction — without a path to a future Palestinian state, the sources said. The demands from Saudi Arabia align with those from the Biden administration — giving the US leverage to try to get Prime Minister Netanyahu on board with its plan for the day after the war in Gaza. If Netanyahu gets on board, he could potentially get a historic peace deal under his name. But if he doesn’t, he is likely to be left on his own to take care of the crisis in Gaza. While the White House wants to try and get a Saudi-Israel normalization deal by the spring — before the presidential election campaign completely consumes Biden’s agenda — many US officials say it is not possible in the current political environment.

Saudi normalization still possible post-war, but price for Israel is higher — officials

Top US officials, Arab diplomat say Jerusalem will have to concede more to Palestinians than before Oct. 7 onslaught, but that Riyadh’s need for US defense guarantees hasn’t changed

Israeli, Saudi and American officials have insisted in recent weeks that a US-brokered normalization agreement between Jerusalem and Riyadh is still on the table and even within reach.  One might assume Saudi Arabia would want to distance itself from Israel, and at the very least not publicly discuss plans to recognize the Jewish state amid the war in Gaza.                       

But Saudi Arabia’s Ambassador to the United Kingdom told the BBC on Tuesday that Riyadh is “absolutely” still interested in normalizing relations with Jerusalem, echoing comments from earlier in the day by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and similar ones made recently by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

IRAN-BACKED MILITANTS

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned yesterday that “there will be consequences” for the continued Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. “We’ve been clear with more than 20 other countries that if it continues, as it did yesterday, there will be consequences,” Blinken said in a press gaggle in Bahrain. The warning comes as the Iran-backed militant group shows no signs of deescalation and the potential for a regional flare-up grows. Jennifer Hansler reports for CNN.

The U.N. Security Council adopted a resolution 11-0 calling on Yemen’s Houthi group to “cease its brazen” attacks in the Red Sea. Four Council members abstained, including Russia and China. U.S. ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield blamed Iran for aiding the Houthis, emphasizing the resolution demands the group stop violating international law. Richard Roth, Haley Britzky, Jennifer Hansler, and Kathleen Magramo report for CNN.

Blinken Wraps up Mideast Tour as Oil Tanker Seizure Underscores Regional TensionsU.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed the outlook (NYT) for the eventual postwar Gaza Strip with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Cairo today, finalizing a tour through the region that also aimed to prevent the war between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas from spreading. Even so, in the latest sign of soaring regional tensions, Iran said today that it had seized (AP) an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman. The tanker has been involved in a yearlong dispute between Tehran and Washington that included the U.S. seizure of one million barrels of the ship’s oil. The International Court of Justice also began hearing (FT) a case against Israel today, in which South Africa alleges that Israel is committing genocide against the Palestinians. Israel says the case “lacks both a factual and a legal basis,” while several Western countries, led by the United States, said South Africa’s case is unfounded (Reuters). The case could extend for years, though South Africa is requesting an immediate order for emergency measures.

Analysis“The [tanker seizure] will raise concerns that Tehran could threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil chokepoint, which lies just north of where the tanker was seized,” the Financial Times’ Najmeh Bozorgmehr, Andrew England, David Sheppard, and Robert Wright write. “Iranian forces have previously seized tankers during periods of heightened tension with the US and other western states.” “Nowhere in South Africa’s application is there any recognition that there is a war taking place. This is not a genocide like Rwanda or of the Rohingya or the Yazidis in recent times, where these were just authoritarian regimes that went after populations that were not attacking them,” CFR expert David J. Scheffer tells Puck News. “These were just slaughters. But this is a war. There is an act of self-defense by Israel.”  Read the full suite of Foreign Affairsand CFR.org resources on Israel and the current conflict. Inside Israel’s Deadly Drone Campaign in GazaTL;DR: “A lot of the standards and procedures have changed because Hamas is getting better and better at using the civilians around them,” IDF drone operator “Captain D.” told Newsweek.As Israeli troops continue to wage war by land in the Hamas-held Gaza Strip, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) operators tucked into command rooms away from the frontlines are leading a parallel campaign from above. At any given time, up to dozens of Israeli drones are hovering over Gaza– prepared to launch strikes against targets, an IDF drone operator identified as Captain D. told Newsweek. “At the end of the day, this is war, and it’s chaotic, and we’re doing our absolute best,” Captain D. said.Why it matters: Even with an IDF legal department issuing guidance throughout the campaign, Israel’s air war continues to come under growing international scrutiny. Criticism has been fueled by reports of increasing civilian casualties– on top of a death toll reported by the Gaza-based Palestinian Health Ministry to have exceeded 23,000 people. Both sides accuse the other of deliberately targeting civilians, a claim both deny. “It has never been proven that Hamas used civilians as human shields or put their lives in danger because this is contrary to our faith and morals,” Hamas spokesperson Ghazi Hamad told Newsweek.