Casualties:
- 20,057 Palestinians killed and 53,320 wounded in the Gaza Strip.* At least 8,000 of those killed have been children.
- 303 Palestinians killed and 4,655 wounded in the West Bank
*This figure was confirmed by Gaza’s Ministry of Health on December 22. Due to breakdowns in communication networks within the Gaza Strip, the Ministry of Health in Gaza has not been able to regularly and accurately update its tolls since mid-November. Some rights groups put the death toll number closer to 26,000.
Key Developments:
- Gaza Ministry of Health: 390 Palestinians have been killed and 734 have been injured over the past 48 hours while communication was suspended in Gaza. Israeli military has given instructions to residents in several areas of the North and Central Gaza Strip—including Khan Younis—to “immediately move to shelters in Deir al-Balah.”
- A new Washington Post investigation finds little proof that Hamas was using the Al Shifa Hospital in Gaza City as a military command center
- WFP: Gaza is at risk of famine as more than one in four households in currently face extreme hunger.
- WHO: Northern Gaza no longer has any functional hospitals
- Palestinian Prisoner’s Group: Israeli forces have arrested than 4,655 Palestinians across the Occupied West Bank.
- Clashes across East Jerusalem as Palestinians are once again barred from attending Friday prayers at the Al Aqsa compound.
- After delaying a vote on a UN Security Council draft resolution Thursday night, the United States has indicated that it is ready to agree to “watered down” terms that would increase humanitarian aid access in Gaza
- EU adopts 118 million euro aid plan for the Palestinian Authority
- Canada announces a temporary immigration visa for relatives of citizens and permanent residents who are trapped in Gaza. It would still be contingent on Israel allowing them to leave.
IDF Escalates Gaza Offensive: Major Evacuations and Tunnel Network Destruction. In the ongoing conflict in Gaza, the IDF is close to completing its ground offensive in northern Gaza, specifically in the neighborhoods of Daraj and Tuffah, targeting Hamas’s remaining battalions. The IDF has control over areas like Beit Hanoun and Jabaliya, with significant operations in Shejaiya. Over the past day, 230 Hamas targets were struck. In southern Gaza, the focus is on Khan Younis, where the IDF’s 7th Armored Brigade is active. A major Hamas command center in Gaza City’s Al-Nukhba Neighborhood was uncovered, revealing a complex tunnel system used by Hamas leaders for operations and movement. This discovery marks a critical blow to Hamas’s capabilities. The conflict has resulted in the deaths of 3 more Israeli soldiers and serious injuries to 5 others. The Israeli army announced that 40 of its fighters were injured, eight of whom in critical conditions. Northern Gaza’s displacement has led to intensified street battles.
Israel’s Use of AI in Gaza Conflict: Tactics and Technologies Explored. Israel’s utilization of artificial intelligence (AI) in its Gaza military operations is a focal point of discussion. The AI systems Gospel and Alchemist, developed by unit 8200 of the Israeli army, play a critical role in integrating intelligence for target identification. The article highlights the significant impact of Israel’s AI-driven operations on Gaza, resulting in high civilian casualties and extensive infrastructural damage. Defense analyst Sam Cranny-Evans notes that while AI proposes targets, human decisions lead to actual attacks. The article also touches on the broader implications of AI in warfare and the ethical concerns it raises.
Israel’s Gaza Shift: Strategic Reassessment and New Governance Horizons. Israel’s military strategy in Gaza, characterized by extensive damage and high casualties, has been analyzed for its complex objectives including dismantling Hamas, preventing future attacks, and restoring trust in security institutions. A recent policy shift indicates a newfound openness to Palestinian Authority control in post-war Gaza, contingent on significant reforms. This strategy also involves a commitment to Gaza’s reconstruction in cooperation with various stakeholders. The recalibration of this approach reflects an evolving strategy, focusing on targeted actions against key figures, reducing civilian harm, and strengthening governance, aligning with broader international perspectives.
Exclusive Study Exposes Misinformation War Against Israel. As 2023 ends, the Israel-Hamas conflict is mired in disinformation, fueled by restricted media access in Gaza and the deaths of journalists. Misinformation spreaders have used social media to circulate false narratives to millions. This includes repurposing old footage from different conflicts, like the Syrian civil war, to mislead about the Israel-Hamas war. The ‘Pallywood’ phenomenon involves repackaging old footage to falsely show Palestinian staged scenes. Anti-Israel disinformation has also reused images from Russian campaigns to falsely accuse Syrian rescue workers of staging atrocities. Russia, linked with Hamas and critical of Israel, has leveraged the conflict to weaken Western support for Ukraine and divert attention from its own actions. Russian and Iranian officials falsely claimed Ukraine’s involvement in arms supply in the conflict. Social media platforms like Facebook, TikTok, YouTube, and X (formerly Twitter) have been key in spreading fake news, driven by financial incentives.
Barghouti’s Potential Release: A Path to Palestinian Leadership. A Saudi-French plan suggests exiling Hamas leaders to Algeria, deploying Arab peacekeeping forces in Gaza, and forming a transitional council. Despite these proposals, Hamas has turned down an Israeli proposition for a 7-day ceasefire, insisting on a more extended truce and the liberation of 500 Palestinian detainees. These negotiations, complex and multi-faceted, could significantly impact the Palestinian political scene and the wider regional dispute. Central to recent talks is the potential prisoner exchange deal, notably involving Marwan Barghouti. Egypt’s mediation between Hamas and Israel has brought Barghouti’s release into focus, positioning him as a potential successor to Mahmoud Abbas, the President of the Palestinian Authority. Hamas’s stance is firm on connecting the prisoner swap to the end of hostilities in Gaza, prioritizing the release of prominent prisoners like Barghouti.
Suspension of Israeli ‘Safar Hamidbar’ Unit After Allegations of Palestinian Abuse. The Israeli military has suspended the operations of its “Safar Hamidbar” (Desert Border) unit, known for recruiting extremist “hilltop youth” settlers. This decision follows multiple allegations of violence against Palestinian civilians in the West Bank’s Jordan Valley. Established in 2020 for anti-smuggling operations, the unit, including the Lions of the Valley battalion, was effective in seizing illegal weapons. However, reports detail its involvement in abusive incidents in Palestinian villages such as Wadi al-Siq. The unit’s members, including some with criminal records, are accused of using their position to further Jewish control in Area C of the West Bank.
Economic Devastation in Gaza: War Leads to 66% Job Loss. The war between Israel and Hamas has led to a catastrophic loss of employment in Gaza, with nearly 66 percent of jobs, or 192,000 positions, vanishing since October 7. This data, released by the International Labour Organization (ILO) and the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS), highlights the severe economic impact of the conflict. The West Bank also faces significant job reductions, with a one-third decrease in employment. Gaza, already struggling with high poverty and unemployment rates, faces an exacerbated humanitarian crisis, pushing the region towards dependency on international aid. The conflict has not only devastated the labor market but also damaged or destroyed 18 percent of all pre-conflict structures in Gaza, further hindering economic recovery.
Israeli officials said Khan Younis is home to one of Hamas’s most important military brigades, a fighting force that has likely been joined by militants who fled from Gaza City. Officials said Israeli troops had killed “elite field-level commanders,” in sometimes face-to-face confrontations, but Sinwar and other top-level Hamas officials have remained elusive.
Khan Younis’s tunnels present the biggest challenge for the Israeli military, said Shalom Ben-Hanan, a former senior Israeli intelligence official. He said that the city had “the most complex and most protected” tunnels in the Gaza Strip and that Hamas had prepared these places in advance before Israel entered.
Israeli forces signaled they were widening their ground offensive with a new push into central Gaza, as the U.N. Security Council was expected to vote on a resolution to increase humanitarian aid to stave off the threat of famine.
Hamas Says Time Is Running Out for Israel to Bring Hostages Home Alive
“If the enemy and its supporters want to capture them [the hostages] alive, they have no choice but to stop the aggression,” Hamas spokesperson Abu Obaida said.
Hamas officials have urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to immediately halt its military’s offensive in Gaza, warning that time is running out for hostages to come home alive. “The continuation of the aggression does not allow for the release of prisoners at all,” Hamas spokesperson Abu Obaida said. Hamas continued to accuse the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) of killing hostages in its ongoing attacks. A Hamas spokesperson told Newsweek that “it is not known” how many of the hostages are still alive.
Israel’s Genocide War in Gaza Continues
Israel dropped hundreds of large bombs capable of killing people more than 1,000 feet away in the first month of the war, including hundreds of 2,000-pound bombs, in a high-intensity offensive that “had not been since since Vietnam,” according to an analysis by CNN.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s national security adviser, Tzachi Hanegbi, indicated that Israel may accept a U.S.-devised plan for a reconstructed Palestinian Authority to govern the Gaza Strip. “Israel is aware of the desire of the international community and the countries of the region to integrate the Palestinian Authority the day after Hamas, and we make[sic] it clear that the matter will require a fundamental reform of the Palestinian Authority,” Hanegbi said, adding that Israel “is ready for this effort.” The Prime Minister of the Palestinian Authority previously said he is prepared to rule the Gaza Strip providing there is a complete withdrawal of the Israeli military. David S. Cloud reports for the Wall Street Journal.
Evidence presented by Israel ‘falls short of showing that Hamas had been using the [Al-Shifa] hospital as a command and control center, according to a Washington Post analysis of open-source visuals, satellite imagery and all of the publicly released IDF materials.’ The analysis shows that “the rooms connected to the tunnel network discovered by IDF troops showed no immediate evidence of military use by Hamas; none of the five hospital buildings identified by [IDF spokesperson] Hagari appeared to be connected to the tunnel network; and there is no evidence that the tunnels could be accessed from inside hospital wards.”’ Both Israel and the Biden administration have repeatedly stood firm on the claim of Al-Shifa being a Hamas command center, while the intelligence remains classified. The IDF responded to The Post analysis saying it has published “extensive, irrefutable evidence that points to the abuse of the Shifa hospital complex for terrorism purposes.” Louisa Loveluck, Evan Hill, Jonathan Baran, Jarrett Ley, and Ellen Nakashima report for the Washington Post.
Israel struck at least three locations it directed civilians to evacuate to in Gaza, following the breakdown of the fighting pause deal with Hamas. While the IDF has provided regular updates on evacuation locations, the power and telecommunications blackouts in Gaza raised concerns about the capacity of civilians to access such instructions. Jake Tacchi reports for CNN.
Hamas rejected a proposed Israeli one-week ceasefire deal in exchange for the release of 40 hostages, with Hamas officials stating yesterday that discussions of hostage-releases would not take place without a more permanent ceasefire. Meanwhile an Arabic statement shared on Telegram by Hamas said, “There is a Palestinian national decision that there should be no talk about prisoners or exchange deals except after a comprehensive cessation of aggression.” Molly Hunter reports for NBC News.
The entire population of the Gaza Strip – some 2.3 million – are facing a “risk of famine,” according to a report released yesterday by the U.N.-backed Integrated Food Security Phase Classification. The risk is “increasing each day” as the war continues, the report states.
U.S. RESPONSE
The U.S. is moving closer to supporting a U.N. Security Council vote on humanitarian aid for Gaza, the U.S. Ambassador confirmed last night, saying it is a “very strong resolution” which the U.S. “can support.” The vote has been delayed several times in hopes of preventing another U.S. veto, with the sticking point yesterday appearing to focus on the draft resolution proposing to have a U.N. mechanism to monitor aid into Gaza. The U.S. argued such a proposal would reduce Israel’s control of the screening process, as Israel currently monitors all aid and fuel deliveries into Gaza. Arab nations argued that an impartial U.N. mechanism is required for the resolution to be meaningful. Francesca Gillett and Nada Tawfik report for BBC News.
The FBI has received over 1,800 reports of “threats or other types of tips or leads” including over 100 investigations, related to the Israel-Hamas war, Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco said yesterday. “These are threats, they’re hoaxes, they can involve claims of terrorist financing,” Monaco said, adding that the “searing images” of Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks have driven a “very significant uptick in threats” including against government, security, and law enforcement officials. Pierre Thomas, Jack Date, Alexander Mallin, and Julia Cherner report for ABC News.
US Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns has been shuttling across the Middle East to help secure the release of hostages taken by Hamas during its Oct. 7 attack on Israel. An Arabic speaker, Burns has quickly gained a reputation among Arab governments as the key US interlocutor in the current crisis, sources say.
IRAN-BACKED MILITANTS
Iran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah directly hit “gatherings of enemy soldiers” this morning at Shomera barracks in Northern Israel using rockets and artillery, while the IDF said it identified launches from Lebanon and “struck the sources of the fire with artillery” including stirking “Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.” Leila Sackur reports for NBC News.
Over 20 countries are now party to the new U.S.-led Red Sea “coalition of the willing,” which safeguards maritime traffic from attacks by Yemen’s Houthis, the Pentagon announced yesterday. Eight of the countries that have signed up to the agreement are not publicly named, indicating the political sensitivities of the operations. Phil Stewart reports for Reuters.
| Israel’s grinding war on Gaza has become a multi-front conflict, as relatively low-intensity faceoffs with Iranian-aligned forces in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen all threaten to ignite a regional conflagration. Israel’s northern border with Lebanon—the southern portion of which is controlled by the Hezbollah militant organization—is one of the wider conflict’s most dangerous flashpoints. This week, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched airstrikes against Hezbollah command sites in southern Lebanon, to which the group responded with rocket salvoes into northern Israel.Exchanges of fire along the frontier have been near constant since October 7. Israel and Hezbollah are yet to dive into a full-scale war, but Israeli national security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi said this month that escalation is a possibility.”We can no longer accept [Hezbollah’s elite] Radwan force sitting on the border,” the aide said. “We can no longer accept Resolution 1701 not being implemented,” he added, a reference to the 2006 United Nations Security Council resolution prohibiting any Hezbollah presence south of the Litani River, some 18 miles north of the Israeli border.”The situation in the north must be changed,” Hanegbi said. “And it will change. If Hezbollah agrees to change things via diplomacy, very good. But I don’t believe it will.”Axios reported this week that Israeli leaders are pressing their American allies on the matter, demanding Hezbollah be pushed back around 6 miles from the Israeli border.”Every single day, there’s another huge hint that the Israelis want to go there,” Michael Allen, who served as special assistant to President George W. Bush and the senior director at the National Security Council, told Newsweek.”We don’t believe that Hezbollah will attack because Iran wants them to be viable,” Allen—who is now the managing director of the Beacon Global Strategy strategic advisory firm—added.”Iran needs them as a deterrent in case Israel struck [their] nuclear facilities. They want it to be in Israel’s calculation that if they were ever to launch a strike inside of Iran proper, Hezbollah would rain down thousands of sophisticated missiles.””But it’s the Israelis who seemingly want it to happen because of their new psyche,” Allen said, referring to the collective feeling of insecurity prompted by Hamas’ surprise October 7 attack.”I think things are very dicey and will be for perhaps the first quarter of next year,” Allen said, suggesting that the ongoing offensive into Gaza will not necessarily mark the end of tensions involving American forces in Syria, Iraq, and the Red Sea.Members of U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration, Allen said, acknowledge that Israel will likely need to continue their Gaza offensive well into January. “They need to hit some metrics,” Allen said of the IDF, such as killing Hamas’ Gaza leader Yahya Sinwar and collapsing the majority of militant tunnels in the Strip. |
| Israel signaled it could agree to the Palestinian Authority governing Gaza after the war. |
| Doing so would require “a fundamental reform” of the group that currently governs the West Bank, the head of Israel’s National Security Council wrote in an opinion piece on the news site Elaph. Without a civil administration ready to assume responsibility in Gaza, the dire humanitarian conditions could worsen, creating new security risks. Israel says it doesn’t want a role in administering Gaza postwar. The Palestinian Authority didn’t respond to a request for comment following the opinion piece’s publication. The group’s prime minister previously said that it is prepared to oversee Gaza only if the Israeli military withdraws completely. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who repeatedly rejected U.S. suggestions that the Palestinian Authority run Gaza, has said the organization represents as much of a security threat to Israel as Hamas, the U.S.-designated terror group whose deadly Oct. 7 assault on Israel sparked the war. |
| Gazans Are Starting to Blame Hamas for Wartime Suffering (Read)What TikTok Is Showing America’s Youth About the War in Gaza (Read)Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner Visit Hamas Attack Site in Israel (Read) |
HOW THE WAR IN GAZA IS IMPACTING SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE
Bottom Line Up Front:
* The war in Gaza has diverted resources from Ukraine, as U.S. bandwidth is occupied by supporting Israel with military and economic assistance, while continued aid to Kyiv is also contested within U.S. domestic political circles.
* As donor fatigue sets in, Ukraine’s war effort could be in serious jeopardy next year, a welcome development for Russia, which has consistently reinforced the narrative of a double standard in how the West deals with the war in Ukraine versus how the U.S. and allies approach the conflict in Gaza.
* On the diplomatic front, Ukraine wants to remain closely aligned with Washington’s position on the Gaza conflict but must pull off a delicate balancing act—aligning with the U.S. position on support for Israel, while also being careful not to alienate large swaths of the Global South.
* Without becoming involved with boots on the ground, through its ongoing military support (training, advice, equipment) to Ukraine, the U.S. has significantly weakened one of its leading adversaries in what could amount to a strategic victory in an era of great power competition.