Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah gives a speech on Friday as world fears escalation on the Lebanese front. Meanwhile, Israeli military and government officials fight over future plans for Gaza and an investigation into the events of October 7.
Casualties:
- 22,600 killed* and at least 57,910 wounded in the Gaza Strip.
- 322 Palestinians killed in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem
*This figure was confirmed by Gaza’s Ministry of Health on January 5. Due to breakdowns in communication networks within the Gaza Strip, the Ministry of Health in Gaza has been unable to regularly and accurately update its tolls since mid-November. Some rights groups say the death toll is higher than 30,000 when accounting for those presumed dead.
Key Developments:
- Three days after the assassination of senior Hamas leader Saleh al-Aruri in Beirut, a speech by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Friday afternoon set the tone on the Lebanese-Israeli front, as international actors frantically try to avoid a regional conflagration.
- While Nasrallah said a response to al-Aruri’s killing was “inevitable,” he stated that Hezbollah’s primary goal was to end the Israeli assault on Gaza – seemingly signaling that a full-blown escalation was not in the cards.
- In Gaza, Israeli airstrikes kill at least 162 people and injure 296 others in the span of 24 hours, including in so-called ‘humanitarian zones.’
- Doctors and humanitarian groups warn that malnutrition and hypothermia are now having fatal consequences in Gaza, as winter hits amid serious shortages in food and drinking water.
- Rights groups meanwhile call for more pressure on Israel amid growing reports of field executions in Gaza as the whereabouts of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners remain unknown.
- Israeli forces kill a Palestinian teenager and detain at least 12 people across the occupied West Bank, as armed confrontations rage in several northern West Bank refugee camps.
- In Israel, tensions explode between the military establishment and far-right ministers over whether to conduct an investigation into the army’s failures on and after October 7, during a heated security cabinet meeting on Thursday.
- Israeli officials discuss plans for Palestinian “clans” friendly to Israel to take over administrative control of Gaza after the war – a proposal strongly rejected by various Palestinian political actors.
ISRAEL’s Genocide in Gaza Continues
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has outlined proposals for the governance of Gaza after the war. “Gaza residents are Palestinian, therefore Palestinian bodies will be in charge, with the condition that there will be no hostile actions or threats against the State of Israel,” Gallant said. “Israel will not govern Gaza’s civilians,” he said, but added that Israel would militarily retain “operational freedom of action” to take any action to “ensure that Gaza will pose no threat to Israel.” James Shotter reports for the Financial Times.
Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) are intensifying operations in southern and central Gaza and have urged Palestinians to use a coastal road to evacuate the area. The IDF posted instructions on X stating, “The humanitarian corridor of Al-Rasheed Street…will be open to travel only from the north to the south of the Gaza Strip, be it on foot or by car, starting today, between 09:00 hours and 16:00 hours.” Celine Alkhaldi and Magdy Abbas report for CNN.
The IDF and the Israeli Security Agency said they have killed Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s chief of operational staff in northern Gaza. The IDF said Lolo had planned and carried out multiple attacks against Israeli civilians and soldiers. Lauren Izso reports for CNN.
The U.N. Palestinian Refugee Agency is working to verify reports of the killing of displaced civilians at its facilities this week. At least 319 people have been killed in incidents at its facilities since the war broke out. Doha Madani reports for NBC News.
REGIONAL RESPONSE
Thousands of people attended the funeral in Beirut of Saleh Arouri, the top Hamas leader who was killed on Tuesday in a suspected Israeli attack. Crowds were seen waving Palestinian and Hamas flags amid the sound of prayers, music, and heavy gunfire. Hugo Bachega reports for BBC News.
U.S. RESPONSE
The Biden administration has not conducted “any kind of formal assessment” to analyze Israel’s compliance with international humanitarian law in Gaza, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said yesterday. Kirby added, “We have not seen anything that would convince us that we need to take a different approach in terms of trying to help Israel defend itself.” Alexander Ward, Erin Banco, and Matt Berg reports for POLITICO.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told a visiting U.S. envoy yesterday that Israel needs a “new security reality” along its northern border with Lebanon. “Yet we find ourselves at a junction – there is a short window of time for diplomatic understandings, which we prefer. We will not tolerate the threats posed by the Iranian proxy, Hezbollah and we will ensure the security of our citizens,” Gallant said. Lauren Izso, Jeremy Diamond, and Sugam Pokharel report for CNN.
Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday in Tel Aviv. “I’m more dedicated now to bringing stability to your country and this region, because I think Iran’s goal is to destroy your efforts to reconcile with the Arab world,” Graham said. “It’s a nightmare for the ayatollah. It’s an absolutely essential ingredient to a better more stable Mideast and a safe and secure Israel and a prosperous Palestinian people.” Doha Madani reports for NBC News.
ATTACKS IN IRAN
The self-styled Islamic State militant group (IS) has claimed responsibility via its Telegram channels for the attack in Iran that killed 84 people during a ceremony commemorating the anniversary of Qasem Soleimani’s killing by the United States. Iran initially claimed Israel and the United States were behind the attacks. The IS group provided generic names for the attackers,making it difficult to ascertain if they were Iranians or foreigners. Frank Gardner and David Gritten report for BBC News.
IRAN-BACKED MILITANTS
The U.S. military conducted a drone strike in Baghdad yesterday that killed a militia leader of an Iran-backed militant group who Washington blamed for recent attacks on U.S. personnel. The Pentagon said U.S. forces took “necessary and proportionate action” in “self-defense” against the Harakat al-Nujaba group, adding that no civilians were harmed.Iraqi security officials said the drone killed two others in addition to the commander. An Iraqi government spokesperson condemned the United States for the attack, labeling it a “flagrant violation of the sovereignty and security of Iraq” which is “no different from a terrorist attack.” Alissa J. Rubin and Eric Schmitt report for the New York Times.
A Houthi drone boat carrying explosives detonated in an attack on shipping lanes in the Red Sea yesterday, one day after the U.S.-led coalition issued a final warning to the group. No casualties or damage were reported, the U.S. navy said. Phil Stewart reports for Reuters.
UN, EU, Arab states heap condemnation on far-right calls for Gazan emigration
International condemnation continued to pour in for far-right ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Smotrich, who called for encouraging the emigration of Gaza’s residents and for the re-establishment of Israeli settlements in the Strip once the Israel-Hamas war is over. The remarks have already been slammed by Israel’s closest Western allies as a violation of international law, on X. Saudi Arabia also said it rejects “extremist remarks” by the two ministers, the foreign ministry said in a statement. Qatar, which acts as a crucial mediator between Israel and Hamas, also condemned in the “strongest terms” Ben Gvir and Smotrich’s statements. The European Union’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell also condemned Smotrich and Ben Gvir.
Blinken back to Middle East for tough talks on Gaza aid, escalation
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken heads back to the Middle East on his fourth trip since the Israel-Hamas war, expecting tough talks as he presses for immediate new aid for battered Gaza and de-escalation in the region. He will visit both Israel and the West Bank, home of the Palestinian Authority, and five Arab countries — Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the State Department said. Blinken will first go to Turkey — an uneasy US ally that is the home of key Hamas leaders despite being one of the few Muslim-majority countries to recognize Israel — followed by Greece.
| Israeli defense minister lays out vision for next steps of Gaza war ahead of Blinken visitIsrael’s defense minister laid out his vision for the next phase of the war in Gaza, describing how Israeli forces would shift to an apparently scaled-down “new combat approach” in northern Gaza, while continuing to fight Hamas in the south “for as long as necessary.” Read more. |
| Why this matters:Yoav Gallant also outlined a proposal for how Gaza would be run once Hamas is defeated, with Israel keeping security control while an undefined, Israeli-guided Palestinian body runs day-to-day administration and the U.S. and other countries oversee rebuilding. The document issued by Gallant is not official policy, which would have to be set by Israel’s war and security cabinets. Israel has come under heavy international pressure to spell out a postwar vision but so far has not done so. |
America Must Face Up to Israel’s Extremism
Pro-Israel Democrats want to back a war to remove Hamas from Gaza. But increasingly, it looks as if America is underwriting a war to remove Gazans from Gaza. Experts in international law can debate whether the forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza can be classified as genocidal, as South Africa is claiming at the International Court of Justice, or as some lesser type of war crime. But whatever you want to call attempts to “thin out” Gaza’s population — as the Hebrew newspaper Israel Hayom described an alleged Netanyahu proposal — the United States is implicated in them.By acting as if Ben-Gvir and Smotrich can be hived off from the government in which they serve, U.S. policymakers are fostering denial about the character of Netanyahu’s rule. Joe Biden often speaks of his 1973 meeting with Golda Meir, then the prime minister, and like many American Zionists, his view of Israel sometimes seems stuck in that era.
John Whitbeck comments,
“Indeed, the U.S. government’s practice of publicly urging Israel to show “restraint” in pursuing (but not to end) its genocidal assault against the people of Gaza, of carefully expressing opposition only to “forcible” (but not to “voluntary”) displacement of Palestinians and of publicly criticizing only the most blatant and unequivocal statements by Israeli politicians urging the ethnic cleansing of the Gaza Strip while simultaneously expediting its continuing supply to Israel of the weapons being used to enable the genocide and the ethnic cleansing and providing essential diplomatic protection at the United Nations constitutes the moral, diplomatic and intellectual equivalent of farting into the wind.”
“It stinks and sticks like the “skunk water” that Israel sprays on Palestinians, and everyone outside the bubble of the Global West can smell the stench of insincerity and hypocrisy.”
Israel’s defense minister floats a plan for the ‘day after’ the war.
“Because Netanyahu depends on his far-right ministers to stay in power, the Israeli government’s “day after” plan for Gaza includes no role for the Palestinian Authority, meaning no movement toward a two-state solution, just more apartheid.”
Mr. Gallant’s proposal shared on Thursday at a meeting of the Israeli security cabinet is predicated on the military defeat of Hamas. It calls for maintaining Israel’s military control of Gaza’s borders, while a “multinational task force” oversees reconstruction and economic development in the territory.
Under his plan, Gazan Palestinians who do not have ties to Hamas, which the United States and European countries have designated as a terror organization, would administer civilian affairs in the Gaza Strip, according to details of the cabinet meeting leaked to Israeli media. But there would be no role for the Palestinian Authority that runs the occupied West Bank, and there would be no resettlement of Israelis in Gaza.
“Nasrallah’s speech indicates he’s still wisely not interested in joining the war with Israel and will retaliate in a limited way. Israel was careful not to kill his men, only Hamas and MB people. That gave him the way out, which he’s apparently going to take.” @Ibishblog
| Imad K. Harb argues that Israel’s assassination of Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri is only a psychological boost for the Israeli military following its failure so far to declare victory over the organization more than two months after invading the Gaza Strip. Harb writes that Arouri’s killing is unlikely to ease Israel’s challenges in Gaza and that previous assassinations of other Hamas leaders have only produced others willing to continue the fight for national liberation. |
| Young Americans and the War on Gaza: President Biden Should Worry |
| Suravi Kumar discusses the disconnect between young Americans, especially Democrats, and the Biden administration’s unconditional support for Israel in its current war on Gaza. Kumar believes that President Biden must adopt a neutral stance toward Israel and the Palestinians or risk losing the crucial support of this important voting constituency in this year’s election. |