Bottom Line Up Front:
* Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House earlier this week, where the leaders discussed a range of issues, including Trump’s tariffs, negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, and Türkiye-Israel relations, especially as tensions have escalated over each country’s role in a post-Assad Syria.
* There have been some questions about how Netanyahu will deal with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as both countries battle for influence in Syria, although Trump suggested that he could serve as a mediator to help the two leaders move beyond their differences.
* Hamas has been seriously degraded as a military force in Gaza but has not been destroyed, as Netanyahu promised in the opening weeks of Israel’s military campaign.
* Trump also revealed during the White House meeting that the U.S. was engaged in “direct talks” with Iran over its nuclear program, although it is unclear whether key obstacles – such as Iranian support for its proxies or its ballistic missile program – will prove insurmountable.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House earlier this week, where the leaders discussed a range of issues, including Trump’s tariffs, negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, and Türkiye-Israel relations, especially as tensions have escalated over each country’s role in a post-Assad Syria. It was Netanyahu’s second visit (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
a move to undermine the country’s democratic institutions. Protests over Netanyahu’s power grab and attempt to control the Israeli judiciary roiled the country in the lead-up to the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023. The frequent demonstrations – which turned out tens of thousands of Israelis – negatively impacted the military readiness of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), complicating its response to the attack and contributing to what was an intelligence failure.
At home, Netanyahu has helped cement his coalition’s majority in Israel’s parliament. Abroad, Israel has acted with free rein in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, emboldened both politically and militarily. However, there have been some questions about how Netanyahu will deal with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
trade, tariffs levied against Israel remained at 17 percent, with no progress on that front during the meeting, even as Netanyahu promised to eliminate Israel’s trade deficit with the United States and dismantle existing trade barriers.
On Gaza, where Israel restarted its military offensive against Hamas three weeks ago, Netanyahu received no pressure or pushback from the Trump administration. While some would suggest that the Biden administration gave Netanyahu a blank check on dealing with Gaza, there were the occasional lectures on human rights and warnings about mounting civilian casualties. Trump lavished praise on Netanyahu and said he was doing everything he could to get the hostages released, mentioning that another ceasefire could be possible, even as Israel’s offensive in Gaza shows no sign of abating. Polling in Israel shows that the majority of Israelis want the hostages to be released and want an end to the war in Gaza. Just last week, Netanyahu, along with other senior Israeli officials, announced that the IDF would begin occupying territory within Gaza, a shift in counterinsurgency tactics and one that could lead to a prolonged occupation of the Strip. Hamas has been seriously degraded as a military force in
Gaza, but has not been destroyed (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
During the meeting in the White House, Trump revealed that the United States was engaged in “direct talks” with Iran over its nuclear program, while Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Aragchi called them “indirect, high-level talks,” which are scheduled to begin on Saturday in Oman. Taking to social media, Aragchi declared: “It is as much an opportunity as it is a test. The ball is in America’s court.” U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
One major impediment will be what Tehran is willing to capitulate on. For example, while the Trump team wants to negotiate over Iran’s support to its proxies, the Iranians have always resisted considering that issue. Tehran has also repeatedly said that any negotiations about its ballistic missile program are beyond the scope of the nuclear negotiations. Whether these will prove to be insurmountable obstacles is yet to be seen, but if a deal is not reached, the prospects for continued warfare in the Middle East will increase exponentially. The U.S. has been moving hardware into the region to flex its muscles, and to demonstrate to its allies and adversaries that it is serious about finding a path forward, either through diplomacy, or if all else fails, through kinetic strikes. Just recently, former UK ambassador to Iran, Sir Richard Dalton, said that the risk of war with Iran has “never been higher.” Referring to a possible military strike on Iran, if an agreement cannot be reached, Trump
said, “So we are going to see if we can avoid it, but it’s getting to very dangerous territory, and hopefully those talks will be successful.”