Complex diplomatic moves in the U.S., Saudi Arabia, Israel, and diplomats are to shape the future of normalization deals with Saudi. But the growing momentum for what could be a historic Israel-Saudi Arabia peace deal is not enough for now. The 30th anniversary of the failed Oslo Accords, is just a grim reminder for all the optimists.
The issue of Saudi normalization with Israel has become as complex as the crisis of the “judicial reforms” of the Netanyahu government, an Israeli newspaper reported.
A Saudi-owned news website reported Sunday that the Saudis have told the Biden administration it is freezing US-brokered efforts to normalize relations with Israel because Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hardline government is unwilling to make any concessions to the Palestinians. An Israeli and an American official both said the report was false.
According to the report in the Elaph newspaper, supposedly citing officials in Netanyahu’s office, the US has informed Israel of the Saudi stance. It said that Israel was “confused” by the move, believing that the Saudis were prepared to move ahead with normalizing ties without linking it to the progress on the Palestinian issue.
The report by the London-based paper’s Israel correspondent singled out the insistence by far-right ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir that Israel does not make any concessions to the Palestinians, adding that without progress with Ramallah, there could be no progress with Riyadh.
Last month, Netanyahu indicated that he was open to gestures to Palestinians if a normalization deal with Saudi Arabia depended on it, and hinted that he would not let coalition members block an agreement.
“Do I think it’s feasible to have that, and do I think that political questions will block it? I doubt it,” Netanyahu told Bloomberg News. “If there’s political will, there will be a political way to achieve normalization and a formal peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia. “I think there’s enough room to discuss possibilities,” he added.
But Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners have ruled out any compromise with the Palestinians. “We will not make any concessions to the Palestinians. It’s a fiction,” Smotrich, who heads the far-right Religious Zionism party, told Army Radio last month. Smotrich said that while Israel is interested in the US-brokered deal with Riyadh, “it has nothing to do with Judea and Samaria,” referring to the West Bank by its
However, in recent weeks the Saudis have stepped up their engagement with Palestinians.Two weeks ago, Riyadh hosted a Palestinian Authority delegation to discuss how to leverage a normalization deal to advance the Palestinian cause.Saudi leaders assured the visiting delegation that Riyadh “will not abandon” the Palestinian cause, even as it discusses normalizing ties with Israel.
The message was passed along in multiple meetings between the Palestinian Authority delegation and senior Saudi officials, including Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan, the US and the Arab official said.
Last month, Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to Jordan began serving as Riyadh’s first-ever nonresident ambassador to the Palestinians as well as its first-ever nonresident consul general to Jerusalem.
The Arab official explained that Riyadh has made clear to Ramallah that it is prepared to depart from its long-held public stance against normalizing ties with Israel absent an actualized two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and that the PA has come to terms with this development and accordingly is asking for measures that fall short of immediate statehood.
Riyadh insists that the Palestinians are at the center of the US-led talks on the normalization initiative with Israel and invited a Palestinian Authority delegation to Riyadh to put forward their demands.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also highlighted on Thursday that Palestine has been a key point in talks, after Israeli reports that Riyadh cared little about this issue.
Last month, Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to Jordan began serving as Riyadh’s first-ever nonresident ambassador to the Palestinians as well as its first-ever nonresident consul general to Jerusalem.
The Arab official explained that Riyadh has made clear to Ramallah that it is prepared to depart from its long-held public stance against normalizing ties with Israel absent an actualized two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and that the PA has come to terms with this development and accordingly is asking for measures that fall short of immediate statehood.
Political normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel is an idea whose time has come. At least that’s the increasingly optimistic view of Saudi and Israeli officials working to make it happen with the Biden administration’s support. But how realistic is it?
There’s little doubt Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, 38, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, 73, want to reach a deal. They’ve met at least twice in secret since November 2020, and both have serious reasons for doing so.
Yet simply because three powerful men, MBS- Netanyahu and President Bide, want the deal to happen doesn’t mean it will. There are many moving parts, including what the Israelis will offer the Palestinians. Do concessions exist that would satisfy the crown prince without irreparably dividing Mr. Netanyahu’s governing coalition? Will Congress accede to Saudi Arabia’s security demands? Will Iran stay on the sidelines or send its proxies to ruin efforts at peace?
As incremental normalization proceeds, two obstacles to formal diplomatic relations remain; the Palestinians and Riyadh’s demand for security guarantees from Washington.
Palestinian leadership under Mahmoud Abbas, 87, is mired in corruption and paralyzed by its maximalist negotiating posture. In April Mr. Abbas met with the crown prince to deliver a long list of Palestinian demands, which the Saudis and Israelis alike have described as “unrealistic.” MBS, who cut funding to the Palestinian Authority over its corrupt affairs several years ago, now offers the prospect of renewed assistance to entice them to bargain seriously. He has also named his ambassador to Jordan as his representative to the Palestinians.
Mr. Abbas seems to be engaging with Riyadh only to seek money and avoid blame for any failure at peace. His past efforts, however, have spoiled domestic support. According to a source in the kingdom, a recent Saudi government-sponsored poll found that only 16% of Palestinians supported the Palestinian Authority. Many young Palestinians are eager for economic opportunity, not continued intransigence.
Almost any consequential concessions would bring down Israel’s right-wing government. But Israeli and American sources believe that opposition leaders Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid could be persuaded to join a unity coalition to approve a peace deal with the Saudis if it included genuine progress on the Palestinian question. Such harmony is a tall order, but still a possibility, in a fractious democracy like Israel.
The biggest threat to the crown prince’s regional ambition is Iran. Normalization with Israel would heighten that vulnerability. Religious and royal opponents at home would accuse MBS of selling out the Palestinians, and Tehran would feel jilted. “Our dilemma is this: Do we open ourselves to terrorist attacks to secure Saudi-Israeli peace?” a Saudi official says.
MBS is therefore demanding that the U.S. offer the kingdom security guarantees, backed by Congress. Extending protection to Saudi Arabia—as America does with North Atlantic Treaty Organization members and Japan—isn’t as controversial as it seems. NATO’s Article 5 provision asserts that an armed attack against one is an attack against all. It doesn’t necessarily trigger war, but rather requires a party to take “such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force.” Several U.S. congressmen will meet with the crown prince to discuss these issues next month, according to a Saudi source.
Whatever guarantees the U.S. gives a real boost to Saudi Arabia’s safety and prosperity would be diplomatic relations with Israel. Open partnership with Jerusalem on defense, economic development, technology, and investment is a security guarantee that a future U.S. president or Congress can’t take away.
If all this comes together, the Western world wins. That’s still a big if—and even if the plan succeeds, challenges will remain. Peace wouldn’t erase Palestinian opposition to Israel’s existence or end Iran’s determination to destroy Israel and remove the Al Saud monarchy’s control of the kingdom’s oil and Islam’s holy sites.
The issue of Saudi normalization with Israel has become as complex as a crisis of “judicial reforms” for the Netanyahu government, the newspaper said.
The newspaper pointed out that Saudi Arabia wants normalization with the occupation to achieve several strategic and long-term goals, not limited to immediate claims only, as it wants a civilian nuclear program, and wants to restore its status with the United States, and it also wants to maintain its position in the region, and therefore it held meetings with the Palestinian Authority, Egypt, and Jordan recently.
It is noteworthy that the increasing reports about Saudi normalization with the occupation, which were reinforced by evidence on the ground like the participation of an official Israeli delegation in a meeting of UNESCO in Riyadh, have not yet been officially dealt with by the Kingdom.
The Saudi stated position on normalization still links the occupation to the acceptance of the implementation of the provisions of the Arab Peace Initiative.
The normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel is looking increasingly likely, even if it does not take place in the immediate future. For Israel, normalizing relations with as many Arab states as possible —
But the obstacles to rapid progress on all three sides of this triangle are steep: any deal would require — for the Saudis, and especially for King Salman — a fairly significant concession for the Palestinians, and no such concession is conceivable with today’s extreme right-wing Israeli government. U.S.-Saudi relations during this administration started as hostile and have improved to near workable, but the level of mistrust still makes rapid progress difficult. U.S. administration relations with the current Israeli government are also facing a high degree of uncertainty and instability.
Firas Maksad, the director of strategic outreach at the Middle East Institute, believes the establishment of official ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel is an inevitability. “It’s a question of when and how,” he said.
That being said, Maksad believes “quite a bit of daylight” remains between the U.S., Israel, and Saudi Arabia. One obstacle to a deal is Riyadh’s traditional support of Palestinian national interests.
Maksad agreed that it remains to be seen how much MBS is willing to stand behind Riyadh’s traditional support for Palestine. “Is he this new breed of Saudi leader that is driven by Saudi nationalist interests and economic interests, or does he have this Arab nationalist element in him where he does care about the Palestinians?” At the very least, Maksad believes the crown prince is using his country’s presumed concern for Palestinians as leverage in negotiations.
Ultimately, Maksad said Saudi Arabia is more interested in “regional integration” than “normalization” with Israel. The country’s recent diplomatic agreement with Iran is indicative of Riyadh’s desire to engage all prominent regional players. “Israel is a part of that region, a part of that reality,” he said.
Thus, despite ongoing U.S. efforts, Maksad does not expect a dramatic accord to be finalized soon. “I think we have to scale this back,” he said. “A staggered approach is a much better approach for both sides and one that is closer to the realities on the ground.”
In closing, Saudi Arabia and Israel are moving toward normalization. It’s unlikely to happen in the short term, but more likely around the 2025 timeframe.