Following the recent 12-day Israel-Iran war, Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu have sought to demonstrate a united front, but underlying differences in their approach to Iran and other regional issues remain.
Points of alignment
- Weakening Iran’s nuclear program: Both leaders supported the military strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities and top commanders, viewing them as a success in dismantling or at least significantly hindering Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
- Celebrating the “win” over Iran: Netanyahu expressed deep appreciation for Trump’s support in the conflict, highlighting the “unshakeable alliance” between their countries and praising Trump’s leadership as a “pivot of history” towards peace and prosperity in the Middle East. Netanyahu even nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.
- Desire for a permanent deal with Iran: Trump has indicated a desire to pursue a long-term agreement with Iran to prevent the resurgence of its nuclear ambitions, though the details of such a deal remain undefined.
Potential points of divergence
- Endgame in Gaza: While Trump is pushing for a lasting ceasefire and a “day after” plan for Gaza, Netanyahu faces pressure from his far-right coalition partners who oppose ending the war until Hamas is destroyed.
- Approach to further pressure on Iran: Trump favors continued diplomacy with Iran to secure guarantees against nuclear weapons development. In contrast, Netanyahu prefers a more forceful approach to compel Iran into making concessions on its enrichment program.
- Netanyahu’s corruption trial: Trump’s public calls for the cancellation of Netanyahu’s corruption trial have been viewed as a potential leverage point and a significant interference in Israel’s domestic affairs.
- Direct dealings with Iran: Trump’s willingness to engage in direct talks with some of Israel’s adversaries, including Iran, could create friction with Netanyahu’s more hardline stance.
The future of the relationship
The extent to which Trump and Netanyahu can truly align on these complex issues remains to be seen. Netanyahu’s political survival relies on balancing his relationship with the US and his domestic political pressures, particularly from his far-right coalition partners. Meanwhile, Trump appears eager to secure broader agreements in the Middle East, including expanding the Abraham Accords and possibly normalizing relations with Syria’s new government. The success or failure of their alignment will likely have significant implications for the future of the region.