Bottom Line Up Front:
* Both the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza and the Israel-Hezbollah truce in south Lebanon have come under significant pressure as the contending sides trade accusations of systematic violations.
* The Trump administration is urging full implementation of all truce agreements in the region to focus on other pressing domestic and international priorities.
* Israel has announced it will delay its withdrawal from south Lebanon, prompting threats by Hezbollah to resume its attacks on northern Israel.
* The Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza is given little chance of producing an enduring peace because of the vast differences in the two sides’ objectives.
Officials of the second Trump administration are attempting to maintain the relative calm in the Middle East that is emerging after more than a year of conflict sparked by the October 7, 2023, Hamas terrorist attack in Israel. Trump officials seek, first and foremost, to prevent the truces achieved in the region from collapsing (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
Israel and Hezbollah (as represented by the government of Lebanon) to halt the post-October 7 cross-border attacks between the two forces that had displaced large populations on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border. Both pacts provided for initial implementation periods that, if their requirements are completed successfully, might end, or produce further negotiations toward ending, the two conflicts. The Lebanon ceasefire was intended to end cross-border exchanges but also de-coupled that theater from the Gaza war. Just yesterday, Israel launched massive strikes in Lebanon, demonstrating that cross-border exchanges continue.
The Gaza and Lebanon agreements were preceded by an April 2022 cessation of hostilities between the Houthi movement (Ansarallah) (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
in favor of longer and more expensive routes.
Neither the Gaza nor the Lebanon ceasefire agreements have collapsed, but both are under severe strain as the combatants accuse each other of systematic violations and threaten to resume fighting. The Gaza truce appears particularly fragile. The first 42-day phase of the agreement is proceeding, if haltingly, since taking effect January 19, and has produced the release of seven of the 33 Israeli hostages and several hundred Palestinian prisoners to be released in phase one. However, subsequent phases of the pact––which are intended to produce a lasting peace––are subject to further negotiations to begin on February 4. Even the first phase of the agreement has been jeopardized on several occasions, most recently by Israeli charges that Hamas failed to live up to a requirement to release a civilian, Arbel Yehud, held by Hamas ally Palestine Islamic Jihad (PIJ) (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
officials announced they would not abide by a requirement to allow Gaza citizens to cross into the northern Gaza Strip until her release is arranged.
More broadly, experts expect negotiations on the contents of subsequent phases of the Gaza ceasefire to bog down, potentially producing a resumption of combat. During the first two Israeli hostage releases, members of Hamas’ military wing, the Qassam Brigades, were in uniform orchestrating the handover ––showcasing the militia has withstood Israel’s application of military power over the past fifteen months. Experts assessed that Hamas intended the show of force to emphasize that it will have an influential role in any decisions about how Gaza will be administered and secured after the conflict ends. By featuring its fighters prominently, Hamas leaders reinforced recent U.S. and Israeli official statements that the group, now led de-facto by slain leader Yahya Sinwar’s (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
Hamas have asserted their authority in parts of Gaza evacuated by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in accordance with the truce.
Israeli officials interpreted Hamas’ actions at the handovers as an expression of its intent to remain the paramount military and political power in Gaza after the conflict – an outcome Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
Hamas’s rule was dangerous for Israel’s security and emphasized that Israel had not agreed to a permanent cease-fire deal that leaves Hamas in control (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
The south-Lebanon truce faces similar challenges, although the prospects for calm along the Israel–Lebanon border are greater than the long-term potential for peace in Gaza. Israel does not demand Hezbollah’s disarmament or its withdrawal from Lebanon’s politics. However, Israel’s primary objective in signing that ceasefire has been to provide nearly 70,000 Israelis who fled their homes (https://thesoufancenter.org/i
Under the November 27 ceasefire, Israel was to fully evacuate all positions seized in south Lebanon by Sunday––60 days after the truce went into effect. However, in advance of that deadline, Netanyahu informed Trump administration officials and regional and international mediators that Israeli troops would not comply with that timeline. The Israeli prime minister’s office said in a statement: “The IDF’s withdrawal process is conditional on the Lebanese army deploying in southern Lebanon and fully and effectively enforcing the agreement, while Hezbollah withdraws beyond the Litani (River)…Since the ceasefire agreement has not yet been fully enforced by Lebanon, the gradual withdrawal process will continue in full coordination with the United States (which, under the truce agreement, chairs the ceasefire’s monitoring committee).”
Reflecting their backing for Israel, Trump administration officials supported Israel’s request to postpone their full withdrawal beyond the January 26 deadline. Brian Hughes, a spokesperson for the White House National Security Council, stated Friday: “All parties share the goal of ensuring Hezbollah does not have the ability to threaten the Lebanese people or their neighbors. To achieve these goals, a short, temporary ceasefire extension is urgently needed.” However, Trump’s stance threatened to unravel the ceasefire and cause the fighting to flare anew. Last week, Ali Fayyad, a member of Hezbollah who is also an elected member of Lebanon’s parliament, stated: “We in Hezbollah are waiting for the date of January 26, the day on which the ceasefire requires a full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory…If the Israeli enemy does not comply with this, it will mean the collapse of the [ceasefire deal].”
Hezbollah’s leader, Naim Qassem (https://thesoufancenter.org/i