Israel and Hamas have something in common, Second Phase of Ceasefire is Uncertain

· Israel and Hamas conducted another exchange of hostages and prisoners as phase one of their truce nears its end. Hamas released the bodies of four Israeli hostages yesterday while Israel by this morning had released more than six hundred Palestinian prisoners. After accusations of violations on both sides, the first phase of the fragile truce is set to expire this weekend—while a potential second phase remains uncertain.

· Israel and Hamas have something in common

· Where talks stand. The January cease-fire deal said negotiations on the second phase were slated to have wrapped up by last Sunday, but formal talks have yet to start in earnest.

· Hamas hands over bodies of four hostages, Israel frees Palestinian prisoners

· Israel sends negotiators to Cairo to extend phase-one of Gaza ceasefire

· Dispute over disarming Hamas bedevils efforts to extend Gaza ceasefire

· Hamas responds to Trump’s AI Gaza video after President lauded gaudy vision of his ‘Riviera of the Middle East’

· Hamas leaders in Gaza say that although they will accept a “national consensus” on who governs Gaza, the movement will not lay down its arms. But Israel intends to tank the ceasefire through its violations of the deal, a senior Hamas leader tells Mondoweiss.

· Phase two was envisioned to include additional releases of Hamas-held hostages and Israeli-held prisoners, as well as Israeli withdrawals from more zones of Gaza. That includes an area called the Philadelphi Corridor, though an unnamed Israeli official told news outlets today that Israel plans to stay there.

· Hamas said today it was ready for talks on phase two. Israel, for its part, seeks an open-ended extension of phase one rather than a new phase that aims to lay the foundation for a more lasting settlement, unnamed sources close to the negotiations told the Financial Times.

· The truce agreement allows for phase one to be extended if phase two negotiations have begun.

The broader context. Decisions at the cease-fire’s crossroads involve both humanitarian and political considerations.

· A restart to the war would end a six-week period in which hundreds of thousands of Palestinians have been able to return to their homes and increased aid has flowed into Gaza.

· Netanyahu is seeking domestic political support to pass a budget. Some of his coalition members said they would leave his government if he agreed to end the war.

· U.S. President Donald Trump campaigned saying he would end the war in Gaza and pushed hard to secure the truce deal. But in recent weeks he has proposed a takeover of Gaza that Palestinians and Arab countries have rejected, saying it would violate international law and work against the prospect of sustainable peace.

The broader context. Decisions at the cease-fire’s crossroads involve both humanitarian and political considerations.

A restart to the war would end a six-week period in which hundreds of thousands of Palestinians have been able to return to their homesand increased aid has flowed into Gaza.
Netanyahu is seeking domestic political support to pass a budget. Some of his coalition members said they would leave his government if he agreed to end the war.

U.S. President Donald Trump campaigned saying he would end the war in Gaza and pushed hard to secure the truce deal. But in recent weeks he has proposed a takeover of Gaza that Palestinians and Arab countries have rejected, saying it would violate international law and work against the prospect of sustainable peace.

“[Trump] has already claimed victory and will not want the deal’s failure to tarnish his image as a peacemaker. Resuming the war in Gaza would also make it nearly impossible for Trump to broker Israeli-Saudi normalization, as the Saudis have refused to move toward a peace agreement with Israel as long as it remains in Gaza,” the Washington Institute for Near East Policy’s Dennis Ross and David Makovsky write for Foreign Affairs.

Senior Hamas leader and politburo member Ismail Radwan said that Hamas does not want to exclusively rule Gaza and that it would accept a Palestinian “national consensus” on the governing body that would rule over the strip.

Israel has publicly stated that one of its prerequisites for a permanent end of its war on Gaza is the complete disarmament of Hamas and for it to no longer rule in the strip. But Radwan stressed that while Hamas is not interested in governing, its right to resist the occupation remains a “red line.”

“We are not keen on ruling the Gaza Strip,” Radwan told Mondoweiss in a phone interview on Wednesday. “We are with any national consensus on how to manage Palestinian affairs, whether in the West Bank or Gaza — because Gaza is part of historic Palestine.”

Israel and Hamas have something in common

They both want to avoid a ceasefire collapse, for a few more weeks

Diplomacy is often the art of kicking the can down the road. That was always the case with the truce between Israel and Hamas, which took effect on January 19th. The first phase of the deal paused the war for six weeks and promised the release of 33 of the 98 Israeli hostages being held in Gaza. A permanent ceasefire would not come until phase two, the details of which still had to be negotiated.

The agreement was meant to create its own momentum. The release of some hostages would galvanize Israeli support for a deal to free the rest. After six weeks of calm in Gaza, Israel and Hamas would be under enormous pressure not to resume fighting. Negotiations over phase two would be hard—but they would happen.

· Israel and Hamas have something in common

· Where talks stand. The January cease-fire deal said negotiations on the second phase were slated to have wrapped up by last Sunday, but formal talks have yet to start in earnest.

· Hamas hands over bodies of four hostages, Israel frees Palestinian prisoners

· Israel sends negotiators to Cairo to extend phase-one of Gaza ceasefire

· Dispute over disarming Hamas bedevils efforts to extend Gaza ceasefire

· Hamas responds to Trump’s AI Gaza video after President lauded gaudy vision of his ‘Riviera of the Middle East’

· Hamas leaders in Gaza say that although they will accept a “national consensus” on who governs Gaza, the movement will not lay down its arms. But Israel intends to tank the ceasefire through its violations of the deal, a senior Hamas leader tells Mondoweiss.

· Hamas said today it was ready for talks on phase two. Israel, for its part, seeks an open-ended extension of phase one rather than a new phase that aims to lay the foundation for a more lasting settlement, unnamed sources close to the negotiations told the Financial Times.

· The truce agreement allows for phase one to be extended if phase two negotiations have begun.

The broader context. Decisions at the cease-fire’s crossroads involve both humanitarian and political considerations.

· A restart to the war would end a six-week period in which hundreds of thousands of Palestinians have been able to return to their homes and increased aid has flowed into Gaza.

· Netanyahu is seeking domestic political support to pass a budget. Some of his coalition members said they would leave his government if he agreed to end the war.

The broader context. Decisions at the cease-fire’s crossroads involve both humanitarian and political considerations.

A restart to the war would end a six-week period in which hundreds of thousands of Palestinians have been able to return to their homesand increased aid has flowed into Gaza.

Netanyahu is seeking domestic political support to pass a budget. Some of his coalition members said they would leave his government if he agreed to end the war.

Senior Hamas leader and politburo member Ismail Radwan said that Hamas does not want to exclusively rule Gaza and that it would accept a Palestinian “national consensus” on the governing body that would rule over the strip.

“We are not keen on ruling the Gaza Strip,” Radwan told Mondoweiss in a phone interview on Wednesday. “We are with any national consensus on how to manage Palestinian affairs, whether in the West Bank or Gaza — because Gaza is part of historic Palestine.”

Israel and Hamas have something in common

They both want to avoid a ceasefire collapse, for a few more weeks

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